Vizualizarea arhivei de luni, 03 noiembrie 2003

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2003 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 307 Emis la 2200Z la 03 Nov 2003

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 02-2100Z la 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels. Two X-class events made way for yet another day of impressive major flare activity. Region 488 (N08W82) produced an X3/2f flare at 03/0955Z and an X2/2b event at 03/0130Z. Both flares had associated Tenflares, Type II and IV radio sweeps, and CME's. The associated CME with the X3 event didn't appear to be Earth directed, though the X2 event may become slightly geoeffective. This Region has shown some decay over the period although it remains a very magnetically complex region with delta structures still evident throughout the spot cluster. Region 486 (S17W75) was limited in flare production today. The largest flare from this region was an M3/sf that occurred at 03/1532Z. This region continues to exhibit a very complex magnetic field and continues to depict a beta-gamma-delta magnetic class structure. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels through day one. Regions 486 and 488 are due to exit the disk beginning on day two which should significantly drop flare activity by day three of the period.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 02-2100Z la 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 02/1105Z has thus far had a maximum of 1570 pfu, which occurred at 03/0815Z and has recently been ranging between 400 and 800 pfu's at the time of this writing. The greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 02/1740Z, reached a maximum of 49 pfu at 02/1905Z, and ended at 03/1720Z. The polar cap absorption event remains in progress. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to severe storm levels through day one of the period. A full halo CME resulting from the X8/2b event from yesterday is expected to arrive early in the period on day one. Additional data from SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates that there was significant deceleration of the CME. Predominantly active conditions are expected on day two with isolated minor storm levels expected. Day three should see a return to unsettled to active levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should drop below alert levels by day two.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 04 Nov până la 06 Nov
Clasa M90%90%70%
Clasa X75%75%50%
PCAFin progress
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       03 Nov 167
  Prevăzut   04 Nov-06 Nov  145/130/120
  Media 90 de zile        03 Nov 131
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 02 Nov  011/018
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  012/015
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  080/090-025/035-015/020
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 04.Nov până la 06.Nov
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Furtună minoră40%35%15%
Furtună major-severă35%15%10%
B. Latitudini înalte
Furtună minoră50%45%20%
Furtună major-severă40%20%15%

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