Vizualizarea arhivei de duminică, 02 noiembrie 2003

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2003 Nov 02 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 306 Emis la 2200Z la 02 Nov 2003

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 01-2100Z la 02-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 486 (S17W62) continues to exhibit its very impressive characteristics by producing another in a series of major events as it unleashed an X8/2b flare at 02/1725Z. A Tenflare, Type II (with an estimated shock velocity of 1691 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, along with strong radio bursts at all frequencies were associated in this event. Initial SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates another in the sequence of Earth bound full halo CME's that this region has produced. An M3 x-ray flare also occurred in this region during the period which produced an associated Type II radio sweep with a estimated shock velocity of 1079 km/s and a west limb CME. Consensus indicates that this region underwent a resurgence in penumbral coverage with 2160 millionths of areal coverage. Several complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structures remain evident in this group. Region 488 (N08W68) produced minor C-class flare activity today and has undergone little change during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 01-2100Z la 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated minor storm conditions were likely due to the continued elevated solar winds speeds and the occasional southward Bz in the interplanetary magnetic field. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes reached alert levels at 02/1105Z and was initially believed to have been from the M3 event earlier in the period (early maximum was 30 pfu). Since the X8 event they have seen a maximum of 797 at 02/2130Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton fluxes have also reached alert levels due to the X8 event; at 1740 (15 minutes from flare maximum) they pushed through event threshold and have since seen a maximum of 49 pfu. A polar cap absorption event is in progress.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels beginning on day one near the middle of the day and continuing through day two due to the full halo CME that resulted from the X8 flare today. Day three may see a return to unsettled to active levels.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 03 Nov până la 05 Nov
Clasa M90%90%70%
Clasa X75%75%50%
PCAFin progress
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       02 Nov 190
  Prevăzut   03 Nov-05 Nov  180/170/150
  Media 90 de zile        02 Nov 131
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 01 Nov  016/021
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 02 Nov  015/017
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  080/120-130/160-020/030
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 03.Nov până la 05.Nov
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Furtună minoră30%25%20%
Furtună major-severă30%55%15%
B. Latitudini înalte
Furtună minoră40%20%30%
Furtună major-severă40%70%20%

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