Vizualizarea arhivei de sâmbătă, 01 noiembrie 2003

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2003 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 305 Emis la 2200Z la 01 Nov 2003

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 31-2100Z la 01-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region 488 (N08W55) produced two M-class flares during the period; an M1 x-ray flare at 01/0852Z and a second M1 x-ray flare at 01/1751Z. Due to insufficient data from LASCO imagery it is unknown if there is any associated CME activity. This region has changed little during the period and continues to depict a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. White light areal coverage is at 1610 millionths. Region 486 (S17W49) continues to be considerable in size and complexity although it only managed to produced lesser C-class flare activity during the period. Slight, yet continued decay was observed over the past 24 hours of penumbral coverage in white light analysis. This region is still very impressive and continues to exhibit a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Much of the remainder of the disk and limb were relatively quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 486 and 488 are both capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 31-2100Z la 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind speeds have gradually decreased from the start of the period, approximately 850 km/s to 600 km/s (at the time of this writing) while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained consistently northward during the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit that had two distinct maximum measurements (29,000 pfu at 29/0615Z; from the X17 flare and 3,300 pfu at 30/1935Z; from the X10 flare) resulting from subsequent days major flare activity has ended at 01/1310Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on day one due to the elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated and could again reach alert threshold with continued major flare activity.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 02 Nov până la 04 Nov
Clasa M70%70%60%
Clasa X35%30%25%
Proton50%35%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       01 Nov 210
  Prevăzut   02 Nov-04 Nov  200/190/175
  Media 90 de zile        01 Nov 130
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 31 Oct  073/093
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  020/020
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  010/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 02.Nov până la 04.Nov
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ25%20%20%
Furtună minoră10%10%10%
Furtună major-severă05%05%05%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ35%25%25%
Furtună minoră20%15%10%
Furtună major-severă10%05%05%

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