Vizualizarea arhivei de joi, 30 octombrie 2003

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2003 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 303 Emis la 2200Z la 30 Oct 2003

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 29-2100Z la 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 486 (S18W23) produced an X10/2b flare that peaked at the end of the last period (29/2049Z). Once again, intense radio emissions accompanied this flare, including a 360,000 sfu burst at 245 MHz, a 2500 sfu Tenflare, and strong Type II/IV radio sweeps. An extremely fast (over 1900 km/s) earth-directed full halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery. A new injection of high energy protons accompanied this flare. Region 486 maintains its tremendous size and magnetic complexity. Strong delta configurations exist in this spot group containing over 2500 millionths of white light areal coverage. Region 488 (N08W28) continues to develop in size and complexity and now nears 1800 millionths of areal overage. Despite its impressive size, this region's activity levels have so far been limited to high C-class and low M-class flares. New Regions 494 (S23E08) and 495 (S22E20) were numbered today. Region 495 is a very fast growing D-type spot group.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to continue at high levels. Region 486 has been one of the most active regions of solar cycle 23 and maintains strong potential for further major proton flares. Large Region 488 also contains potential for a major flare.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 29-2100Z la 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly minor to severe storm levels. The intense geomagnetic storm that began at 29/0611Z continued through the first half of this period. Severe (K8-9) levels were observed from 29/2100 - 30/0300Z. A short-lived "lull" (K5-6) in activity preceded the onset of another severe geomagnetic storm. The very fast CME from the X10 flare that peaked at 29/2049Z impacted the magnetic field at around 30/1600Z - a remarkably fast 19-hour transit from Sun to Earth. GOES-10,11, and 12 geosynchronous satellites have experienced magnetopause crossings and in fact have been outside the magnetopause for much of the time since the onset of this severe storm. Sustained southward IMF Bz in the -15 to -30 Nt range is assuring a severe response. A Forbush decrease at around 20% remains in progress. A new surge of high energy protons followed the X-10 flare, enhancing the existing greater than 10 MeV and greater than 100 MeV proton events from the X17 flare on the 28th. This enhancement reached 110 pfu (29/2310Z) in the greater than 100 MeV level, and 3300 pfu (30/1935Z) in the greater than 10 MeV level. A polar cap absorption continues and the proton event remains in progress.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at major to severe storm levels through the first half of day one. The current severe geomagnetic storm is expected to gradually subside by the end of day one. Unsettled to occasional minor storm periods are possible on day two. Mostly unsettled levels are expected by day three. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by day one. The greater than 10 MeV proton event will likely persist through day two.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 31 Oct până la 02 Nov
Clasa M90%90%90%
Clasa X50%50%50%
Proton99%99%75%
PCAFin progress
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       30 Oct 271
  Prevăzut   31 Oct-02 Nov  265/260/255
  Media 90 de zile        30 Oct 128
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 29 Oct  199/189
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 30 Oct  115/130
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  080/100-020/030-010/015
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 31.Oct până la 02.Nov
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ10%40%20%
Furtună minoră20%15%05%
Furtună major-severă70%10%01%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ10%50%25%
Furtună minoră10%30%10%
Furtună major-severă80%10%05%

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