Vizualizarea arhivei de joi, 23 octombrie 2003

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2003 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 296 Emis la 2200Z la 23 Oct 2003

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 22-2100Z la 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels again today. Region 486 (S16E70) produced a major flare at 23/0835 UTC; it was an X5/1b event, with an associated Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 967 km/s. An associated CME was also seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery. A second major flare from this region occurred at 23/2004 UTC, which was an impulsive X1/1n flare. This region is just rotating into view on the southeast limb, and is obviously a very large group, with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 484 (N04W00) was fairly active producing several M-class flares today. The largest was an M3/1n event that occurred at 23/0708 UTC. This region continues to depict a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered today. The F10 value is estimated and is based on the Penticton morning reading due to a flare enhancement during the reading of the noon value.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both very capable of producing major flares.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 22-2100Z la 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from active to major storm levels for the forecast period. These elevated conditions are expected as a result of the partial halo CME on 22/0754 UTC and from the X5/1b flare at 23/0835 UTC.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 24 Oct până la 26 Oct
Clasa M90%90%90%
Clasa X50%50%50%
Proton25%30%35%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       23 Oct 183
  Prevăzut   24 Oct-26 Oct  190/195/195
  Media 90 de zile        23 Oct 114
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 22 Oct  020/033
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/010
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  040/050-040/050-030/050
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 24.Oct până la 26.Oct
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ30%30%40%
Furtună minoră40%40%30%
Furtună major-severă30%30%20%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ20%20%20%
Furtună minoră40%40%40%
Furtună major-severă40%40%40%

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