Vizualizarea arhivei de vineri, 20 decembrie 2002

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2002 Dec 20 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 354 Emis la 2200Z la 20 Dec 2002

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 19-2100Z la 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Along with several lesser C-class flares Region 226 (N19W16) produced an M6.8/Sf major flare (optical classification has some doubt due to the seeing conditions) at 20/1318 UTC. A Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity of 868 km/sec), Tenflare, and strong discrete radio busts accompanied the flare. This region has undergone little change from yesterday and retains it's beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. Region 229 (N19W16) produced a near long duration M2.7/2n flare at 19/2153 UTC that had a Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 668 km/sec. A Type IV radio sweep, Tenflare, and multiple discrete radio bursts were associated with the flare. SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 imagery indicate a possible earth-bound CME as a result of this activity. Region 230 (S08E19) continues to show steady growth and was responsible for several minor C-class flares today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Regions 226, 229, and 230 all have the potential for M-class production. Region 226 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 19-2100Z la 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The elevated conditions are due to a geoeffective recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit became elevated following the M2.7 event early in the period while the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels late in the day.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the forecast period. A shock passage is expected on day two due to the M2.7 event (discussed in part IA) which may result in active to minor storm conditions. By day three a return to predominantly quiet unsettled levels is expected.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 21 Dec până la 23 Dec
Clasa M70%70%70%
Clasa X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       20 Dec 197
  Prevăzut   21 Dec-23 Dec  195/195/185
  Media 90 de zile        20 Dec 166
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 19 Dec  015/021
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 20 Dec  012/015
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  010/015-025/025-012/015
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 21.Dec până la 23.Dec
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ20%35%20%
Furtună minoră05%25%10%
Furtună major-severă01%10%05%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ25%45%25%
Furtună minoră10%30%10%
Furtună major-severă05%10%05%

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