Vizualizarea arhivei de duminică, 11 august 2002

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2002 Aug 11 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 223 Emis la 2200Z la 11 Aug 2002

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 10-2100Z la 11-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. The two largest x-ray flares of the period were optically uncorrelated: A C9.5 flare at 11/1147 UTC, and a C7.9 flare at 11/1801 UTC. LASCO imagery revealed no evident CME activity following the first event, and was unavailable for the second event, however neither event was accompanied by any significant CME-related radio emissions. A 19-degree filament disappearance occurred near N28W51 at about 11/0700, close to the western end of a long filament channel that extends to the northeast limb. No CME was evident in available LASCO imagery following this event. Regions 61 (N07W28), 66 (N13E42), and newly numbered 69 (S08E77) were all sources of lesser C-class activity. Region 61 appears to be undergoing an accelerated decay in size and complexity. New Region 69 appears large and complex in white light, but its limb proximity prevents a detailed magnetic analysis. Three other regions were also numbered: 70 (N05W05), 71 (N11E68), and 72 (N18W23). All appear relatively simply structured at present. 10cm flux experienced a rapid rise with the appearance of the new regions.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, but with a fair chance for isolated M-class activity over the next three days, primarily due to new Region 69.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 10-2100Z la 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A trend toward elevated solar wind speed and sustained southward Bz appeared to persist for most of the day, and may indicate the early influence of expected high speed stream effects.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions for the next three days.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 12 Aug până la 14 Aug
Clasa M35%35%35%
Clasa X01%01%01%
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       11 Aug 172
  Prevăzut   12 Aug-14 Aug  175/180/185
  Media 90 de zile        11 Aug 164
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 10 Aug  013/016
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 11 Aug  013/018
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 12.Aug până la 14.Aug
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Furtună minoră10%10%10%
Furtună major-severă01%01%01%
B. Latitudini înalte
Furtună minoră10%10%10%
Furtună major-severă01%01%01%

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