Vizualizarea arhivei de duminică, 04 august 2002

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2002 Aug 04 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 216 Emis la 2200Z la 04 Aug 2002

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 03-2100Z la 04-2100Z

Solar activity was high due to a long duration M6 x-ray event at 0955 UTC. The event was associated with activity behind the southwest limb in cotemporaneous solar image data. A faint CME could be seen in LASCO images associated with the flare with an approximate plane-of-sky speed of 500 km/s. The CME does not appear to have any earthward component. The remainder of today's solar activity consisted of occasional C-class flares. With the departure of Regions 39, 44, and 50, Region 57 is now the dominant sunspot group on the disk. Region 57 has shown growth over the past 24 hours and possesses some magnetic complexity. The group produced occasional subflare activity.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate over the next three days. There is a very slight chance, however, that one of the regions behind west limb could produce another major flare or proton producing event. Of the regions on the disk, Region 57 shows the best potential for producing an M-class event.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 03-2100Z la 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A period of moderately negative Bz in the solar wind occurred from about 2300-0300 UTC and led to active to minor storm conditions from 0000-0900 UTC. The source of the enhanced Bz is uncertain, but may be related to a solar sector boundary crossing from towards orientation to an away orientation which occurred during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. There is a possibility, however, for some isolated active periods on the third and fourth days as a coronal hole will be rotating into favorable position at that time.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 05 Aug până la 07 Aug
Clasa M50%45%45%
Clasa X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       04 Aug 151
  Prevăzut   05 Aug-07 Aug  150/145/145
  Media 90 de zile        04 Aug 167
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 03 Aug  011/020
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 04 Aug  015/015
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  010/010-010/010-012/015
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 05.Aug până la 07.Aug
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ25%25%35%
Furtună minoră15%15%20%
Furtună major-severă05%05%05%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ30%30%35%
Furtună minoră15%15%20%
Furtună major-severă05%05%10%

Toate orele în UTC

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