Vizualizarea arhivei de luni, 29 iulie 2002

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2002 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 210 Emis la 2200Z la 29 Jul 2002

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 28-2100Z la 29-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 44 (S21W24) produced four M-class flares during the period: an M2 at 28/2312 UTC, an M1 at 29/0023 UTC, an M4/1f at 29/0238 UTC associated with a 380 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep, and a long-duration M4 at 29/1044 UTC. The M4 flare at 29/1044 UTC may have been associated with a partial-halo CME. Region 44 showed a slight increase in sunspot area in its trailer portion. However, the region simplified slightly as the delta magnetic configuration within its intermediate spots showed signs of decay. Region 39 (S11W18) produced isolated C-class flares during the period. It remained large and magnetically complex with delta magnetic configurations within its leading and trailing spots, though the trailing delta may be decaying. Region 43 (N12W26) remained in a gradual growth phase and produced a C5/Sf flare late in the period. Region 50 (S07W06) produced a C8/Sf flare at 29/1941 UTC as it continued to increase in area and complexity. A magnetic delta may have formed within its intermediate spots. New Region 55 (N14E75) was numbered.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 39 and 44 are expected to produce M-class flares. Either region could produce a major flare during the period. Region 50 could produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 28-2100Z la 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of the period. ACE solar wind data indicated a shock passage at L1 at 29/1241 UTC followed by a weak sudden impulse (SI) at Earth at 29/1330 UTC (9 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). Field activity increased to unsettled to active levels following the SI.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 30 July decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels on 31 July. Field activity is expected to increase to active levels on 01 August in response to today's long-duration M4 flare. There is a chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 30 Jul până la 01 Aug
Clasa M80%80%80%
Clasa X30%30%30%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       29 Jul 234
  Prevăzut   30 Jul-01 Aug  235/230/230
  Media 90 de zile        29 Jul 166
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 28 Jul  009/012
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  013/015
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  015/015-010/010-020/020
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 30.Jul până la 01.Aug
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ35%25%40%
Furtună minoră15%05%20%
Furtună major-severă05%01%10%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ40%30%45%
Furtună minoră20%20%25%
Furtună major-severă10%01%15%

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