Vizualizarea arhivei de miercuri, 17 iulie 2002

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2002 Jul 17 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 198 Emis la 2200Z la 17 Jul 2002

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 16-2100Z la 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 30 (N19W25) produced an M8/1b flare at 17/0713 UTC with an associated Type II radio burst. A CME was associated with this event but there does not appear to be an Earth directed component. Region 30 has shown slight decay in the leader spots but remains a large beta-gamma-delta spot group. As Region 36 (S09E51) rotates further into view it has developed into a moderately sized spot group with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Activity from Region 36 so far has been C-Class events.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 30 and Region 36 are expected to produce M-class activity. They are also capable of producing a major flare during the period.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 16-2100Z la 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A sudden impulse occurred at 17/1604 UTC and measured 18 nT on the San Juan magnetometer. Active conditions followed the sudden commencement. Greater than 10 MeV protons exceeded the 100 pfu threshold at 17/1250 UTC, reached a peak value of 234 pfu at 17/1600 UTC and ended at 17/1710 UTC. Greater than 10 MeV protons remain above the 10 pfu threshold as of this forecast issue. A PCA event began at 16/2215 UTC and reached a peak absorption 4.8 Db on the Thule 30 MHz riometer. Greater than 2 MeV electron at geo-synchronous orbit reached moderate levels.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Active conditions are possible early on day one due to the CME shock from the X3 event on 15 July. Isolated active conditions are possible on day three due to coronal hole effects and the possibility of a weak shock from the M8 event earlier today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue to decline and should end on day one of the forecast period. The PCA event in progress is expected to last until 19/0000 UTC. Maximum daytime absorption is expected to be about 6 Db, while maximum nighttime adsorption will be about 2 Db.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 18 Jul până la 20 Jul
Clasa M75%75%75%
Clasa X20%20%20%
Proton99%50%15%
PCAFin progress
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       17 Jul 180
  Prevăzut   18 Jul-20 Jul  180/190/185
  Media 90 de zile        17 Jul 161
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 16 Jul  009/011
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 17 Jul  020/020
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  015/015-010/012-012/020
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 18.Jul până la 20.Jul
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ40%25%25%
Furtună minoră20%10%05%
Furtună major-severă10%01%01%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ45%30%30%
Furtună minoră20%15%15%
Furtună major-severă10%05%05%

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