Vizualizarea arhivei de marți, 16 iulie 2002

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2002 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 197 Emis la 2200Z la 16 Jul 2002

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 15-2100Z la 16-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 30 (N19W12) produced an M1 X-ray flare at 15/2132 UTC associated with a 460 sfu Tenflare. Region 30 also produced C-class flares during the period. It continued to grow during the period and is now around 1500 millionths in area. It remained magnetically complex with multiple magnetic delta configurations within its interior spots. A full-halo CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO imagery beginning around 16/1600 UTC. Flare activity in Region 30 may have been the source for this CME. Region 36 (S07E64) produced isolated subflares during the period. It is still too close to the east limb for a detailed analysis, but appeared to be moderate in size and complexity. New Region 37 (N17E74) was numbered.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly moderate levels. Region 30 is expected to produce M-class flares. It is also capable of producing another major flare during the period. Region 36 could produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 15-2100Z la 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geosynchronous orbit at 16/1750 UTC following yesterday's X3/3b flare. The greater than 10 MeV flux at the close of the period was 32 pfu and gradually increasing.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 17 - 18 July in anticipation of a CME passage associated with the X3/3b flare of 15 July. The shock is expected to arrive around midday tomorrow. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 19 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to peak on 17 July then slowly decay through the rest of the period.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 17 Jul până la 19 Jul
Clasa M80%80%80%
Clasa X15%15%15%
Proton99%50%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       16 Jul 172
  Prevăzut   17 Jul-19 Jul  180/185/185
  Media 90 de zile        16 Jul 161
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/008
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  008/009
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  025/030-020/020-008/012
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 17.Jul până la 19.Jul
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ40%40%25%
Furtună minoră20%20%10%
Furtună major-severă10%10%01%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ45%45%30%
Furtună minoră25%25%15%
Furtună major-severă15%15%05%

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