Vizualizarea arhivei de joi, 27 septembrie 2001

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2001 Sep 27 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 270 Emis la 2200Z la 27 Sep 2001

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 26-2100Z la 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate for the past 24 hours. A long duration M1 x-ray event began at 0855 UTC, attained maximum at 1213 UTC, and ended at 1406 UTC. Although the source for the event was not certain, the most likely candidate appears to be a set of loops that were observed in EIT data just behind the northwest limb. It should be noted, however, that Region 9628 (S18W37) was undergoing frequent plage brightenings during the course of the event and may also have been a contributor. Region 9628 showed slight decay today, but continues to possess strong magnetic fields, including a delta near the center of the region. Region 9632 (S19W21) also continues to look impressive with a strong delta across an east-west inversion line. In spite of their size and complexity, none of the flares observed from these regions exceeded the subfaint level. Region 9634 (N12E11) showed some growth today as did Region 9637 (S14E32). Two new spot groups were assigned today: Region 9640 (N10E67) and Region 9641 (S14E77). Both appear to be quiet and stable. A CME was observed to enter the C2 field of view at 0854 UTC today over the southwest limb and appears to have characteristics of a partial halo event.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated major flare event during the next 3 days, with Regions 9628 and 9632 being the most likely sources.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 26-2100Z la 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 24/1215 UTC continued to decline today. Flux values had decreased to 270 pfu by forecast issue time.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase to unsettled to slightly active is predicted for the 2nd and 3rd days as a response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime late tomorrow or perhaps early on day two.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 28 Sep până la 30 Sep
Clasa M80%80%80%
Clasa X30%30%30%
Proton99%75%35%
PCAFin progress
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       27 Sep 270
  Prevăzut   28 Sep-30 Sep  265/260/260
  Media 90 de zile        27 Sep 172
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 26 Sep  013/024
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 27 Sep  010/010
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  010/010-015/015-015/018
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 28.Sep până la 30.Sep
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ25%45%45%
Furtună minoră15%20%20%
Furtună major-severă05%15%15%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ25%45%45%
Furtună minoră15%20%20%
Furtună major-severă05%15%15%

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