Vizualizarea arhivei de luni, 24 septembrie 2001

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2001 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 267 Emis la 2200Z la 24 Sep 2001

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 23-2100Z la 24-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9632 (S19E19) produced an X2/2b flare at 1038 UTC. Significant discrete frequency radio bursts (i.e., 7500 sfu at 2695 MHz) accompanied the event, as well as a Type IV sweep which lasted for many hours. A full halo coronal mass ejection was seen by SOHO/LASCO. This region remains bright in H-alpha and still shows mixed polarities in its largest spot. Elsewhere on the disk occasional small flares occurred from a number of the 15 spotted regions visible. Two new regions were assigned, Region 9636 (N12E65) and Region 9637 (S14E71).
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9632 is still a threat to produce additional M and X class activity.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 23-2100Z la 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Satellite proton events at greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV began shortly after the X2/2b flare. The greater than 10 MeV protons crossed threshold at 1215 UTC, and reached a tentative maximum of 1,020 pfu at 2040 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV event began at 1440 UTC and attained its tentative maximum of 10.6 pfu at 2020 UTC. Neither trace is declining at this writing. In addition a Polar Cap Absorption event began at 1315 UTC, and registered a peak value of 9.0 dB of absorption at 30 MHz at approximately 1935 UTC.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at major to severe storm levels beginning early on 26 September. The cme/flare event of earlier today is expected to spawn a strong disturbance expected to persist for 48 hours. The proton events currently occurring are likely to continue for the next 24 hours. The Polar Cap Absorption is expected to continue throughout the day on 25 September.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 25 Sep până la 27 Sep
Clasa M80%80%80%
Clasa X30%30%30%
Proton99%50%30%
PCAFin progress
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       24 Sep 279
  Prevăzut   25 Sep-27 Sep  285/290/285
  Media 90 de zile        24 Sep 168
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 23 Sep  018/027
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  010/012
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  015/020-080/100-040/040
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 25.Sep până la 27.Sep
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ30%05%10%
Furtună minoră15%25%50%
Furtună major-severă05%65%25%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ40%05%10%
Furtună minoră20%25%40%
Furtună major-severă10%70%40%

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