Vizualizarea arhivei de joi, 13 septembrie 2001

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2001 Sep 13 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 256 Emis la 2200Z la 13 Sep 2001

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 12-2100Z la 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been low, however there have been several C-class flares with associated Type II radio sweeps indicating potential CME activity. The largest event was a C9.6 x-ray flare at 12/2149 UTC. This event appeared to originate from Region 9606 (S17W79), per test imagery available from the GOES-12 SXI instrument, and was accompanied by a Type II sweep with estimated velocity of 747 km/s. Two additional impulsive events were also observed: A C7/Sn flare at 13/1602 UTC from Region 9610 (S13W18), with associated Type II sweep estimated velocity of 596 km/s, and, again per SXI imagery, a C5.8 x-ray event at 13/1951 UTC from Region 9607 (S16W51), with associated Type II sweep velocity of 771 km/s. Other C-class flare activity occurred in Regions 9616 (S10E55) and 9608 (S25W33). Two new regions were numbered today: 9618 (S21W26) and 9619 (N17E21).
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9608 remains very large in areal coverage and spot count, with appreciable magnetic complexity, and remains capable of producing a major flare. Regions 9610 and 9616 are also potential sources of M-class activity.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 12-2100Z la 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. There were some indications in the ACE satellite data of a weak interplanetary shock passage at about 13/0100 UTC. Active geomagnetic conditions and an isolated period of minor storming at higher latitudes followed, and persisted for several hours until mainly unsettled conditions developed from about 13/1200 UTC onward. This disturbance is presumed to have originated from the CME activity of 9 September.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active for the next three days. Shock passages are expected from the DSF activity of 11 September, and the CME activity of the past two days, over the course of the forecast period. Isolated periods of minor storming at higher latitudes are possible.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 14 Sep până la 16 Sep
Clasa M70%70%70%
Clasa X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       13 Sep 240
  Prevăzut   14 Sep-16 Sep  235/225/225
  Media 90 de zile        13 Sep 164
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 12 Sep  009/013
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 13 Sep  015/015
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  018/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 14.Sep până la 16.Sep
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ25%20%20%
Furtună minoră15%15%15%
Furtună major-severă05%05%05%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ30%25%25%
Furtună minoră20%15%15%
Furtună major-severă05%05%05%

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