Vizualizarea arhivei de sâmbătă, 25 noiembrie 2000

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2000 Nov 25 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 330 Emis la 2200Z la 25 Nov 2000

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 24-2100Z la 25-2100Z

Solar activity continued at high levels. The period began with another X-class flare from Region 9236 (N22W20). The X1/2n flare occurred at 24/2159Z and had associated minor centimetric radio bursts and a CME. Reports of strong doppler shifts in the NE-SW filament in Region 9240 (N08E34) were soon followed by an impressive eruption at 25/0131Z. The eruption included an M8/2N, long duration ribbon flare with strong radio bursts including a 14000 sfu Tenflare. Strong Type II and IV sweeps also occurred with this flare and a CME was observed on LASCO imagery. Region 9236 flared again, producing an M3/2n flare and CME at 25/0920Z. The period ended with an X1/2b from Region 9236 with moderate to strong radio bursts and Type II sweep (910km/s). It appears that yet another Earth-directed CME was associated with this event. No significant new growth was noted in Region 9236 over the past 18 hours, but it continues to produce frequent flares in a complex, beta-gamma configuration exceeding 600 millionths of white light coverage.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. Region 9236 is capable of continued M and X-class events. A filament has reformed in the vicinity of the 0131Z eruption in Region 9240. If the present pattern continues, we should see another major event from this region in the next three days.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 24-2100Z la 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 24/1520Z is still in progress and is currently ranging 12 to 18 pfu. The maximum so far was 93 pfu at 24/1920Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 24/1720Z, ended at 24/1820Z with a peak flux of 1.1 pfu at 24/1810Z.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach minor to major storm levels early in day one. We observed as many as six Earth directed CME'S in the last 48 hours, so minor to major storm levels are expected through the next three days. Another proton event is possible should Regions 9236 or 9240 produce another major flare.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 26 Nov până la 28 Nov
Clasa M75%70%60%
Clasa X50%40%35%
Proton80%50%40%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       25 Nov 202
  Prevăzut   26 Nov-28 Nov  200/195/195
  Media 90 de zile        25 Nov 175
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 24 Nov  009/009
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 25 Nov  010/012
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  060/070-050/060-030/040
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 26.Nov până la 28.Nov
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ20%20%50%
Furtună minoră40%40%30%
Furtună major-severă40%40%20%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ20%20%40%
Furtună minoră30%30%30%
Furtună major-severă50%50%30%

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