Vizualizarea arhivei de vineri, 24 noiembrie 2000

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2000 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 329 Emis la 2200Z la 24 Nov 2000 : : : : : : :CORRECTION: : : : : : : :

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 23-2100Z la 24-2100Z

Solar activity is now at high levels. Magnetograms revealed developing complexity late last period in Region 9236 (N22W07) and a series of significant events followed. The first was an M1/1n at 23/2328Z with associated Type II sweep (1025km/s) and CME. At 24/0502Z, an X2/3b flare erupted with strong centimetric radio bursts including a Tenflare of 2200sfu. This event was also accompanied by a Type II sweep (1000km/s), a proton event, and a halo CME. The third significant event from this region was an X2/2b that occurred at 24/1513Z. This flare was also accompanied by large centimetric radio bursts, a Type II sweep (1200km/s), proton event, and a halo CME. This region, at over 500 millionths of sunspot areal coverage, is magnetically complex and still developing. Region 9231 (S24W74) was mostly stable this period, producing only an isolated low C-class flare. New region 9242 (N22E68) was numbered today.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9236 continues to develop and is very capable of continued M-class and X-class events. Region 8231's complexity will likely result in occasional C-class events with an isolated chance of a small M-class flare.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 23-2100Z la 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions observed late in the period. Solar wind data indicates we've transitioned to a high speed stream over the past eighteen hours with current solar wind speed ranging 500 to 550km/s. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 24/1520Z and is currently in progress. A maximum of 84 pfu was reached at 24/1905Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 23/1720Z, with a maximum of 1.1pfu observed at 24/1810Z. The initial proton enhancement began following the X2/3b flare at 0502Z. A second impulse of protons was evident following the X2/2b at 1513Z.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active through day one due to high speed coronal hole flow. The first of a series of CME 's are expected to impact the field early on day two. As many as four individual CME's occurring over the past forty hours appeared earthbound. Minor to major storming is likely on days two and three. Another proton event is possible should Region 9236 produce an additional major flare.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 25 Nov până la 27 Nov
Clasa M70%70%70%
Clasa X40%40%40%
Proton99%80%50%
PCAFred
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       24 Nov 197
  Prevăzut   25 Nov-27 Nov  200/200/195
  Media 90 de zile        24 Nov 174
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 23 Nov  004/007
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  008/008
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  015/020-060/070-050/060
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 25.Nov până la 27.Nov
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ40%20%20%
Furtună minoră25%40%40%
Furtună major-severă10%40%40%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ50%20%20%
Furtună minoră30%30%30%
Furtună major-severă15%50%50%

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