Vizualizarea arhivei de luni, 01 martie 1999

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 1999 Mar 01 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 060 Emis la 2200Z la 01 MAR 1999

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 28-2100Z la 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8471 (N28W26) PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ON 28 FEB, PRIOR TO THE M6/2B, THIS REGION DEVELOPED A DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION OF MODERATE STRENGTH. IN THE INTERIM, THIS DELTA FADED AND OVERALL THE REGION DECAYED SLIGHTLY IN PENUMBRAL COVERAGE. THE MAIN NEUTRAL LINE IN THIS REGION WAS ALMOST LINEAR SUGGESTING MAGNETIC SHEAR AT THAT LOCATION, BUT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA WERE NOT AVAILABLE TO CONFIRM THIS SUPPOSITION. REGION 8475 (N32E16) EXHIBITED GROWTH AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. A DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION MAY BE FORMING IN THIS REGION. TWO SMALL AREAS OF PLAGE AND SPOTS EMERGED NEAR S15W07. THERE WERE NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8478. THIS AREA MAY BE SPLIT INTO TWO SEPARATE REGIONS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8471 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT FLARE FREQUENCY SHOULD DECREASE AS DECAY CONTINUES. REGION 8475 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS SHOULD GROWTH AND INCREASING MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY CONTINUE.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 28-2100Z la 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIODS WERE 01/0000-0600Z AND 01/1200-1800Z. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOWED A LOW SPEED, HIGH DENSITY FLOW WITH NORTHWARD BZ DURING THE DISTURBANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS DISTURBANCE WAS RELATED TO A FILAMENT DISRUPTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ON 24-25 FEB. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS INCREASING AND DENSITY WAS DECREASING.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. A SMALL CORONAL HOLE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EARTH'S FIELD ON 02-03 MAR.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 02 MAR până la 04 MAR
Clasa M50%40%40%
Clasa X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       01 MAR 120
  Prevăzut   02 MAR-04 MAR  120/120/118
  Media 90 de zile        01 MAR 144
V. Indici geomagnetici A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 FEB  010/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAR  024/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAR-04 MAR  015/015-012/012-012/010
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 02.MAR până la 04.MAR
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ20%20%20%
Furtună minoră10%10%10%
Furtună major-severă05%05%05%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ25%20%20%
Furtună minoră10%10%10%
Furtună major-severă05%05%05%

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