Vizualizarea arhivei de vineri, 07 noiembrie 1997

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 1997 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 311 Emis la 2200Z la 07 NOV 1997

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 06-2100Z la 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST (AND ONLY) C-CLASS FLARE OF THE PAST DAY WAS A C1/SF IN REGION 8103 (N22W33) AT 07/0926Z. THIS REGON IS GROWING SLOWLY BUT REMAINS A SMALL, RELATIVELY SIMPLE SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8100 (S19W77) HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE YESTERDAY'S MAJOR FLARE, ONLY PRODUCING A FEW SMALL SUBFLARES. THIS REGION APPEARS TO HAVE SIMPLIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS; HOWEVER, ITS PROXIMITY TO THE WEST LIMB MAKES A COMPLETE ANALYSIS DIFFICULT.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8103. REGION 8100 MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE BEFORE ITS DISK DEPARTURE BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 06-2100Z la 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED AT MOST STATIONS DURING THE 07/0000-0600Z PERIODS FOLLOWING AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVAL AND SUDDEN STORM COMMENCEMENT (SSC) AT 06/2252Z. THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO BE RELATED TO THE X2/2B FLARE OF 04 NOV. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV AND GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENTS GENERATED FROM YESTERDAY'S X9/2B FLARE REMAIN IN PROGRESS. PROTON EVENT PARTICULARS: GREATER THAN 10 MEV START 06/1305Z AND PEAK (490 PFU) 07/0250Z; GREATER THAN 100 MEV START 06/1245Z AND PEAK (51 PFU) 06/1640Z. THE PCA CONTINUES IN PROGRESS.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED STORM CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THE X9/2B FLARE DUE TO THE FLARE LOCATION AND THE PRESUMED DIRECTION OF THE ASSOCIATED CME. HOWEVER, IF THE SHOCK ENCOUNTERS THE EARTH TOMORROW, AS EXPECTED, GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY BE ENHANCED TO ACTIVE TO STORM LEVELS. THE PROTON EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PROGRESS THROUGH TOMORROW AS FLUXES SLOWLY RETURN TO BACKGROUND.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 08 NOV până la 10 NOV
Clasa M25%10%01%
Clasa X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       07 NOV 094
  Prevăzut   08 NOV-10 NOV  090/085/080
  Media 90 de zile        07 NOV 090
V. Indici geomagnetici A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 NOV  013/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 NOV  030/045
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 NOV-10 NOV  030/035-015/030-010/012
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 08.NOV până la 10.NOV
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ20%20%10%
Furtună minoră25%10%05%
Furtună major-severă10%05%01%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ20%20%10%
Furtună minoră25%10%05%
Furtună major-severă10%05%01%

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