Vizualizarea arhivei de joi, 06 noiembrie 1997

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 1997 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 310 Emis la 2200Z la 06 NOV 1997

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 05-2100Z la 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8100 (S19W68) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE YET OF THE NEW SOLAR CYCLE, AN X9/2B PEAKING AT 06/1155Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH RADIO BURSTS OF 54000 SFU AT 245 MHZ, 3300 SFU AT 2695 MHZ AND A STRONG TYPE IV SWEEP. THE SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARS TO HAVE SIMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE MAJOR FLARE, REDUCING PENUMBRAL AREA AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. SUNSPOT POLARITY DATA SUGGEST THAT THE DELTA CONFIGURATIONS OBSERVED YESTERDAY ARE NO LONGER PRESENT. CORONAL INSTRUMENTS ON THE SOHO SATELLITE OBSERVED A "WIDE" (ABOUT 100 DEGREE) CME OFF THE WEST SOLAR LIMB COINCIDENT WITH THE X-RAY EVENT.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. THE LIKELIHOOD OF IMMINENT MAJOR FLARES IN REGION 8100 HAS DIMINISHED IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S MAJOR EVENT. HOWEVER, THIS REGION IS STILL LARGE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY, OR EVEN ANOTHER X-CLASS FLARE, BEFORE IT ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB IF MAGNETIC ENERGY REGENERATES.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 05-2100Z la 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE X-CLASS EVENT DESCRIBED IN PART IA. PRODUCED PROTON EVENTS AT GREATER THAN 10 AND 100 MEV WHICH REMAIN IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV EVENT CROSSED THE EVENT THRESHOLD OF 1 PFU AT 06/1245Z AND APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK FLUX OF 51 PFU AT 06/1640Z. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV EVENT CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT THRESHOLD AT 06/1305Z AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (06/2100Z FLUX 340 PFU). THE PCA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE BEGAN AT ABOUT 06/1400Z AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS. CURRENT (06/2100Z) PCA ABSORPTION AT THULE GREENLAND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 5.6 DB. THIS X9 FLARE PRODUCED THE FIRST GROUND LEVEL EVENT (GLE) OF THE SOLAR CYCLE (LAST GLE IN 1992). THE GLE STARTED AT ABOUT 06/1220Z, PEAKED WITH ABOUT A 10% INCREASE ABOVE BACKGROUND AT 06/1355Z, AND APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED AT 06/2000Z.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REACH STORM LEVELS BY TOMORROW DUE TO THE MAJOR SOLAR EVENTS OBSERVED ON 4 NOVEMBER. DISTURBED CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, STARTED BY THE 4 NOV EVENT AND CONTRIBUTED TO BY TODAY'S SOLAR ACTIVITY. THIS FORECAST (ACTIVITY DURATION AND INTENSITY) WILL BE UPDATED AFTER THE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY ONSET.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 07 NOV până la 09 NOV
Clasa M50%50%50%
Clasa X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       06 NOV 105
  Prevăzut   07 NOV-09 NOV  100/095/090
  Media 90 de zile        06 NOV 089
V. Indici geomagnetici A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 NOV  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 NOV  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 NOV-09 NOV  050/060-030/035-020/010
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 07.NOV până la 09.NOV
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ30%20%20%
Furtună minoră30%25%20%
Furtună major-severă15%15%10%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ35%25%25%
Furtună minoră35%30%30%
Furtună major-severă20%20%15%

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