Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja
Odnotowany: 2017 Sep 25 0030 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com
Solar activity was at very low levels. Only a few low level B-class
flares were produce by new Region 2682 (S09E71, Hsx/alpha). The largest
was a B2 flare at 24/1122 UTC. Region 2681 (S13E19, Hsx/alpha) was
quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on days one through three (25-27
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a maximum flux of 12,883 pfu at 24/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux continued at background values.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on days one and two (25-26 Sep) and decrease to normal to
moderate levels on day three (27 Sep) due to the arrival of a positive
polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels.
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged
from approximately 320 km/s to near 420 km/s by periods end. Total
field ranged from 2-10 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-9 nT.
Phi angle was mostly positive (away) until 24/1905 UTC when it switched
into a negative (towards) sector.
Solar wind parameters are expected to become weakly enhanced on days one
and two (25-26 Sep) under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
By mid to late on day three (27 Sep), solar wind parameters are expected
to become enhanced once more as a positive polarity, polar connected, CH
HSS becomes geoeffective.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day
one (25 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Sep) due to
negative polarity CH HSS effects. By mid to late on day three (27 Sep),
a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing
active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions.