Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja
Odnotowany: 2018 Jun 25 1230 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com
Solar activity was at very low levels. Multiple B-class flares were
observed from Regions 2713 (N08W42, Dso/beta) and 2715 (N05, L=289). The
largest was a B3/Sf at 24/1752 UTC from Region 2715. Region 2715
continued to exhibit minor decay over the period. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available satellite imagery.
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a
decreasing chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days
(25-27 Jun) as Region 2715 continues to decay and Region 2713 rotates
further around the west limb.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 1,130 pfu observed at 24/2045 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
days one and two (25-26 Jun) with a decrease to moderate levels likely
on day three (27 Jun) in response to elevated geomagnetic field
activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels for the forecast period.
Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 490 km/s to near 410 km/s
under the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field
ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle
was oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day two
(26 Jun) through day three (27 Jun) due to the onset of a CIR followed
by the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. STEREO-A
solar wind data suggests wind speeds in excess of 700 km/s are likely
during the passage of this feature.
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through the rest of
day one (25 Jun) as the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS
subsides. The onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a recurrent,
negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods of active
conditions on day two (26 Jun) and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms on day
three (27 Jun).