Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja
Odnotowany: 2017 Nov 18 1230 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com
Solar activity was very low. Region 2687 (S08E24, Hax/alpha) was absent
of significant flare activity and displayed slight decay. Region 2688
(N11, L=238) decayed to plage. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed in available satellite imagery during the period.
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flaring throughout the forecast period (18-20 Nov).
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a peak flux of 2,330 pfu at 17/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux continued at background values.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 18-20 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels all three days.
Solar wind parameters indicated a disturbed solar wind environment. Wind
speeds were steady, starting at approximately 450 km/s and ending near
420 km/s. Total field (Bt) peaked at 5 nT while the Bz component did not
drop lower than -4 nT. Phi was primarily positive.
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed over the next
three days (18-20 Nov) due to CH HSS influences. A waning trend is
expected to transition into an additional enhancement on day two (19
Nov) due to the anticipated onset of another positive polarity CH HSS.
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (18 Nov). An increase to active levels is likely over days two
and three (19-20 Nov) as another positive polarity CH HSS is expected to