Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja

Odnotowany: 2018 Oct 18 0030 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com

Aktywność słoneczna

Podsumowanie dobowe
Solar activity was very low. Region 2725 (S11E05, Axx/alpha) retained its recently reemerged solo spot but was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Prognoza
Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (18-20 Oct).

Cząsteczki energetyczne

Podsumowanie dobowe
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 1,463 pfu at 17/2020 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
Prognoza
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on day one (18 Oct) due to influences associated with the formerly geoeffective negative polarity CH HSS. The arrival of a CIR is expected to decrease flux to normal and moderate levels on day two (19 Oct). Day three (20 Oct) is anticipated to see an increase to moderate and high levels due to effects associated with another CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Wiatr słoneczny

Podsumowanie dobowe
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return towards a slow solar wind regime. Solar wind speed decreased from around 475 km/s to near 400 km/s by the periods end. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 3 to 5 nT and the Bz component underwent weak deviations. The phi angle was mainly negative, but had some shifts between negative and positive sectors.
Prognoza
A mild disturbance in the solar wind is anticipated later on day one (18 Oct) due to effects associated with an SSBC and approaching CIR. Day two (19 Oct) is expected to experience an enhanced and more disturbed IMF due to CIR effects, followed by increasing solar wind speed as Earth connects with the south flank of an extension of the positive polarity, north polar CH HSS. Day three (20 Oct) is expected to see a decrease in the enhanced IMF and lowering solar wind speed.

Geoprzestrzeń

Podsumowanie dobowe
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Prognoza
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet most of day one (18 Oct) with some unsettled reactions later in the day due to SSBC and approaching CIR influences. Day two (19 Oct) is expected to experience reactions of unsettled to active, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely due to CIR arrival and Earth connection with the south flank of the positive polarity CH HSS. Day three (20 Oct) is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for active conditions, as CH HSS influences continue, but weaken.
Aktualne dane sugerują, że nie jest możliwa obserwacja zorzy polarnej na średnich szerokościach geograficznych

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Fakty na temat pogody kosmicznej

Ostatnie rozbłyski klasy X:2017/09/10X8.2
Ostatnie rozbłyski klasy M:2017/10/20M1.0
Ostatnia burza geomagnetyczna:2018/10/13Kp5 (G1)
Ilość dni bez skazy w 2018 roku:165
Ostatni dzień bez skazy:2018/10/16

Ten dzień w przeszłości*

Rozbłyski słoneczne
11998M2.4
22014M1.6
32001C8.5
42013C8.4
52014C6.7
ApG
1199532G3
2199627G1
3200325G1
4201519G1
5201415
*od 1994

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