Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja
Odnotowany: 2018 Jan 20 0030 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com
Solar activity remained very low. Region 2696 (S12W29, Axx/alpha) was in
gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (20-22 Jan).
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels
on day one and (20 Jan) with an increase to moderate levels on days two
and three (21-22 Jan) due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested
minor enhancements from SSBC. Total magnetic field strength increased
from a nominal 5 nT to a peak of 9 nT around 19/0730 UTC before
returning to near 5 nT by the periods end. Bz was variable with a
period of sustained -5 nT between 19/0250-0720 UTC. Wind speeds only
increased slightly from 525 to a brief peak of 405 km/s at 19/1741 UTC
before settling around 380 km/s. Phi was briefly variable at the
beginning of the period but settled in the negative sector after 19/0500
Solar wind parameters are expected to exhibit further enhancement over
day one (20 Jan) as influence from the anticipated negative polarity CH
HSS becomes geoeffective. Winds are expected to slowly decline over days
two and three (21-22 Jan) as the CH HSS wanes.
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
The geomagnetic field will likely reach active conditions, with a chance
for G1 (Minor) storm levels, during the onset of an anticipated,
positive polarity CH HSS on days one (20 Jan). Active conditions are
expected over day two (22 Jan) and unsettled conditions are likely on
day three (22 Jan) as influence from the CH HSS weakens.