Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja
Odnotowany: 2018 Aug 22 0030 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com
Solar activity was very low. Region 2719 (S12E15, Bxo/beta) was mostly
unchanged from yesterday and was inactive.
At approximately 21/05 UTC a faint, broad, and slow-moving CME was seen
in LASCO/SOHO coronagraph imagery. The source region for this CME is
unclear, and the bulk of the ejecta appears to be directed southwest of
the Sun-Earth line. Analysis of this event is ongoing and a model run
will be submitted to determine if there is more of a Sun-Earth component
than initial analysis suggests. Initial analysis is ambiguous given the
lack of material associated with this eruption, and as a result,
forecast confidence is, and is expected to remain, low. Additional
adjustments to the forecast are likely once model results become
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (22-24
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 9,290 pfu observed at 21/2025 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
for the next three days (22-24 Aug) due to enhanced solar wind
conditions. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar wind parameters reflected a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind
speeds steadily declined from around 650 km/s to around 550 km/s. Total
field strength was steady near 5 nT. There were no significant
deviations in the Bz component. The phi angle remained negative.
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the next three
days (22-24 Aug) due to the continued, but waning, influence of a
negative polarity CH HSS.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to the
continued influence of the negative polarity CH HSS.
Mostly unsettled levels are expected over the next three days
(22-24 Aug) due to the continued influence of a negative polarity CH