Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja

Odnotowany: 2024 Mar 19 0030 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com

Aktywność słoneczna

Podsumowanie dobowe
Solar activity reached high levels (R2-Moderate) with a few M-class flares observed during the period. The strongest event of the period was an impulsive M6.7 flare observed at 18/1919 UTC from new Region 3615 (S12E62, Eao/beta-gamma). Since being numbered, this region has contributed numerous C-class flares as well. Region 3612 (N22, L=014) produced an M2.7 flare at 18/0332 UTC as it rotated around the NW limb. Shortly after, an additional M1.0 flare was observed from Region 3614 (N16E56, Dai/beta) at 18/0414 UTC. Emerging flux was noted to the SW of Region 3608 (N10W24, Bxo/beta) and was numbered 3616 (N02W31, Dai/beta). Since its emergence, this region has grown rapidly over the period. Between about 18/0200-0315 UTC, an 11 degree long filament erupted that was centered near N13W32. At this time, no discernable CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Prognoza
Solar activity is expected to be low over 19-21 Mar, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).

Cząsteczki energetyczne

Podsumowanie dobowe
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background levels, but remained well below event threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
Prognoza
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated, but below event levels on 19 Mar, and slowly return to background levels over 20-21 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Wiatr słoneczny

Podsumowanie dobowe
Solar wind parameters were mostly nominal. Solar wind speeds remained steady near 300 km/s through about 18/1940 UTC when an increase to about 357 km/s was observed. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT through 18/1935 UTC when an increase to 11 nT was observed. The Bz component was mostly positive through about 18/1300 UTC when a dip to -10 nT was observed. The Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive sector. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at 18/2016 UTC.
Prognoza
Ambient to weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 19 Mar and the first half of 20 Mar. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected after midday on 20 Mar through 21 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament eruption.

Geoprzestrzeń

Podsumowanie dobowe
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
Prognoza
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 19 Mar through midday on 20 Mar. Periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely during the latter half of 20 Mar through 21 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament eruption.

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Fakty na temat pogody kosmicznej

Ostatnie rozbłyski klasy X2024/02/22X6.3
Ostatnie rozbłyski klasy M2024/03/18M6.6
Ostatnia burza geomagnetyczna2024/03/03Kp6- (G2)
Spotless days
Ostatni dzień bez skazy2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
lutego 2024124.7 +1.7

Ten dzień w przeszłości*

Rozbłyski słoneczne
12003M5.34
22003M2.33
32000M2.29
42003M2.23
52003M2
ApG
1200137G3
2200638G2
3200219G1
4201526G1
5200511G1
*od 1994

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