Viewing archive of wtorek, 4 listopada 2003

Raport aktywności słonecznej

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport aktywności słoneczno- geomagnetycznej 2003 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Przygotowane przez NOAA © SWPC i przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive.com

Połączenie raportów USAF/NOAA o słonecznej i geofizycznej aktywności

Numer SDF 308 wydany w 2200Z na 04 Nov 2003

IA. Analiza aktywności regionów słonecznych i aktywność od 03-2100Z do 04-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels today. Region 486 (S17W89) has been rotating off the visible disk today. Even so, as a parting display of it's massive size and complicated magnetic structure, it managed to produce one of the largest x-ray flares on record, an X17(plus)/3b flare at 04/1929Z. The x-ray sensor on GOES was saturated at X17.4 between 04/1944 and 1956Z. Intense radio busts were observed at all frequencies, a Tenflare (at 20000 sfu's), and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 1268 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Indications of an extremely fast moving (2301 km/s) full halo CME were seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery. This region also produced an M2 flare at 04/0556Z and an M1 flare at 04/1349Z. Region 488 (N08W95) produced an M3 x-ray flare as it rotated off the visible disk earlier in the period. Region 497 (N10W45) was newly numbered today.
IB. Prognoza aktywności słonecznej
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels. Region 486 is still capable of producing an isolated major flare even though it will have rotated off the visible disk throughout day one. Days two and three may see moderate levels.
IIA. Podsumowanie aktywności geofizycznej 03-2100Z do 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. A shock passage occurred at the ACE satellite at approximately 04/0600Z due to the CME from the X8 event on 02 Nov. A sudden impulse of 72 nT was observed by the Boulder magnetometer at 04/0627Z. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained north though most of the day; however, an isolated period of severe storm conditions were observed from 04/0900 to 1200Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have been on a steady decrease through the period and continue above alert levels; the event began at 02/1105Z, and had a maximum of 1570 pfu's which was observed at 03/0815Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognoza aktywności geofizycznej
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible during day one due to the elevated wind speeds from the shock passage from earlier today. Day two's activity may stay enhanced due to a glancing blow from the X17 (plus) flare from today. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes are currently above alert levels and are expected to be further enhanced due to today's X17 (plus) event. The greater than 100 MeV fluxes are also expected to rise above alert levels early on day one of the period due to the aforementioned activity.
III. Prawdopodobieństwa zdarzenia 05 Nov do 07 Nov
Klasa M70%30%10%
Klasa X40%10%01%
Proton99%50%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Przepływ 10,7 cm z Penticton
  Zaobserwowano       04 Nov 168
  Przewidywane   05 Nov-07 Nov  140/130/125
  Średnia z 90 dni        04 Nov 132
V. Indeks geomagnetyczny A
  Zaobserwowano Afr/Ap 03 Nov  015/010
  Szacowane     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  020/030
  Przewidywane    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  020/030-020/030-010/020
VI. Prawdopodobieństwa aktywności geomagnetycznej 05 Nov do 07 Nov
A. Średnie szerokości geograficzne
Aktywne35%35%20%
Słaba burza20%20%10%
Bardzo znacząca burza10%10%05%
B. Wysokie szerokości geograficzne
Aktywne45%45%25%
Słaba burza35%35%15%
Bardzo znacząca burza20%20%10%

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