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Raport aktywności słonecznej
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport aktywności słoneczno- geomagnetycznej 2003 May 16 2200 UTC
Przygotowane przez NOAA © SWPC i przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive.comPołączenie raportów USAF/NOAA o słonecznej i geofizycznej aktywności
Numer SDF 136 wydany w 2200Z na 16 May 2003
IA. Analiza aktywności regionów słonecznych i aktywność od 15-2100Z do 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Prognoza aktywności słonecznej
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due
to returning regions emerging from the east limb.
IIA. Podsumowanie aktywności geofizycznej 15-2100Z do 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. Solar
wind velocity continues to decrease as the previous coronal hole
rotates across the west limb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognoza aktywności geofizycznej
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels for the next two days, with
active conditions possible on day three of the period due to a
coronal hole passing into geoeffective position.
III. Prawdopodobieństwa zdarzenia 17 May do 19 May
Klasa M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
Klasa X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Przepływ 10,7 cm z Penticton
Zaobserwowano 16 May 103
Przewidywane 17 May-19 May 110/115/120
Średnia z 90 dni 16 May 124
V. Indeks geomagnetyczny A
Zaobserwowano Afr/Ap 15 May 019/023
Szacowane Afr/Ap 16 May 010/012
Przewidywane Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 010/012-010/012-015/020
VI. Prawdopodobieństwa aktywności geomagnetycznej 17 May do 19 May
A. Średnie szerokości geograficzne |
Aktywne | 20% | 20% | 30% |
Słaba burza | 10% | 10% | 15% |
Bardzo znacząca burza | 01% | 01% | 05% |
B. Wysokie szerokości geograficzne |
Aktywne | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Słaba burza | 15% | 15% | 20% |
Bardzo znacząca burza | 05% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments
The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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