Viewing archive of piątek, 31 marca 2000
Raport aktywności słonecznej
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport aktywności słoneczno- geomagnetycznej 2000 Mar 31 2200 UTCPrzygotowane przez NOAA © SWPC i przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive.com
Połączenie raportów USAF/NOAA o słonecznej i geofizycznej aktywności
Numer SDF 091 wydany w 2200Z na 31 MAR 2000IA. Analiza aktywności regionów słonecznych i aktywność od 30-2100Z do 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF
M-CLASS EVENTS THAT OCCURRED. MULTIPLE REGIONS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY. REGION 8939 (N22E56) PRODUCED THE
LARGEST EVENT - AN M4/SF AT 31/1019Z. THIS FLARE ALSO PRODUCED A
WEAK TYPE IV AND MINOR CENTIMETER BURSTS. REGION 8939 ALSO PRODUCED
M1/SF FLARES AT 31/0755Z, 31/1318Z, AND 31/1655Z. THIS REGION'S
SMALL SIZE BELIES ITS M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION. REGION 8936
(S14E56) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE DURING THE PERIOD AND EXHIBITED
INCREASING MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION.
THIS REGION PRODUCED AN M2/2B AT 30/2324Z AND AN M1/SN AT 31/0652Z
(WITH A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION). REGION 8925 (S18W32) PRODUCED
AN M2/1N AT 31/1901Z. THIS REGION WAS PREDOMINANTLY STABLE AND
EXHIBITED SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. SEVERAL FILAMENTS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN FADED DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Prognoza aktywności słonecznej
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A
MODERATE LEVEL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION
8936 WOULD INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF M-CLASS EVENTS FROM THAT
REGION. REGION 8939 COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS BUT DUE
TO ITS SMALL AREA IN WHITE LIGHT, IT IS LIKELY THIS REGION WILL
QUIET DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR
FLARE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Podsumowanie aktywności geofizycznej 30-2100Z do 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ISOLATED
MINOR STORMING WAS ALSO OBSERVED. THE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
UNKNOWN. SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS WERE REASONABLY BENIGN EXCEPT FOR
SOME PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECTOR BOUNDARY
DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prognoza aktywności geofizycznej
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS COULD BE EXPERIENCED EARLY ON 01 APR AND AGAIN ON 03 APR.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III. Prawdopodobieństwa zdarzenia 01 APR do 03 APR
| Klasa M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Klasa X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Przepływ 10,7 cm z Penticton
Zaobserwowano 31 MAR 225 Przewidywane 01 APR-03 APR 225/225/223 Średnia z 90 dni 31 MAR 181
V. Indeks geomagnetyczny A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAR 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAR 015/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 APR-03 APR 010/012-008/010-010/015
VI. Prawdopodobieństwa aktywności geomagnetycznej 01 APR do 03 APR
| A. Średnie szerokości geograficzne | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktywne | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Słaba burza | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Bardzo znacząca burza | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Wysokie szerokości geograficzne | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktywne | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Słaba burza | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Bardzo znacząca burza | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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