Viewing archive of środa, 4 listopada 1998
Raport aktywności słonecznej
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport aktywności słoneczno- geomagnetycznej 1998 Nov 04 2200 UTCPrzygotowane przez NOAA © SWPC i przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive.com
Połączenie raportów USAF/NOAA o słonecznej i geofizycznej aktywności
Numer SDF 308 wydany w 2200Z na 04 NOV 1998IA. Analiza aktywności regionów słonecznych i aktywność od 03-2100Z do 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS
BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS
SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE
LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI,
BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE
AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH
PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION
WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED:
8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Prognoza aktywności słonecznej
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Podsumowanie aktywności geofizycznej 03-2100Z do 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Prognoza aktywności geofizycznej
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE
CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A
PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON
02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376
LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT
04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER
6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Prawdopodobieństwa zdarzenia 05 NOV do 07 NOV
| Klasa M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klasa X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Przepływ 10,7 cm z Penticton
Zaobserwowano 04 NOV 141 Przewidywane 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150 Średnia z 90 dni 04 NOV 132
V. Indeks geomagnetyczny A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV ???/??? PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 020/???-020/???-010/???
VI. Prawdopodobieństwa aktywności geomagnetycznej 05 NOV do 07 NOV
| A. Średnie szerokości geograficzne | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktywne | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Słaba burza | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Bardzo znacząca burza | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Wysokie szerokości geograficzne | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktywne | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Słaba burza | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Bardzo znacząca burza | 01% | 01% | 01% |
IA. Analiza aktywności regionów słonecznych i aktywność od 03-2100Z do 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS
BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS
SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE
LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI,
BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE
AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH
PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION
WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED:
8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Prognoza aktywności słonecznej
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Podsumowanie aktywności geofizycznej 03-2100Z do 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Prognoza aktywności geofizycznej
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE
CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A
PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON
02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376
LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT
04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER
6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Prawdopodobieństwa zdarzenia 05 NOV do 07 NOV
| Klasa M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klasa X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Przepływ 10,7 cm z Penticton
Zaobserwowano 04 NOV 141 Przewidywane 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150 Średnia z 90 dni 04 NOV 132
V. Indeks geomagnetyczny A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV 7/7 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 20/12-20/15-15/10
VI. Prawdopodobieństwa aktywności geomagnetycznej 05 NOV do 07 NOV
| A. Średnie szerokości geograficzne | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktywne | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Słaba burza | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Bardzo znacząca burza | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Wysokie szerokości geograficzne | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktywne | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Słaba burza | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Bardzo znacząca burza | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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