Previsione Meteo Spaziale - Discussione

Rilasciato: 2018 May 24 0030 UTC
Preparato dal Dipartimento di Commercio degli Stati Uniti, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center ed elaborato da SpaceWeatherLive.com

Attività solare

Sommario delle 24 ore
Solar activity increased to low levels, due to a C2 flare at 23/1821 UTC from an area of enhanced X-ray flux just beyond the NE limb at approximately N15E90. This same active region also produced frequent B-class flares during the reporting period. Region 2710 (N18E38, Bxo/beta) underwent some decay and was inactive. Region 2711 (N06W28, Dao/beta) grew in coverage and matured in complexity. Despite the growth, the regions overall magnetic field strength was minor and its magnetic gradient and shear were weak; however, it did produce some minor B-level enhancements. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Previsione
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for isolated occurrences of C-class flares all three days (24-26 May) due primarily to persistence considerations from the active region just beyond the NE limb. This region is anticipated to rotate onto the visible disk by day one, allowing for a better analysis. Some additional flare contribution is possible from Region 2711 through the forecast period.

Particelle energetiche

Sommario delle 24 ore
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
Previsione
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate levels on day one (24 May) and increase to moderate to high levels on days two and three (25-26 May) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Vento Solare

Sommario delle 24 ore
Solar wind parameters were indicative of CH HSS influences. Solar wind speed increased from an average speed of 375 km/s early in the period to end of period values from 500-550 km/s. Total IMF strength increased to 12 nT, before it unsteadily weakened to later period values from 3 to 5 nT. The Bz component was variable, with no prolonged or pronounced periods of southward direction. The phi angle was predominantly positive.
Previsione
Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on day one (24 May), but is likely to begin an unsteady decline as the extension of the positive polarity, north polar CH HSS rotates away from a more favorable geoeffective position. CH HSS influences are expected to continue waning on day two (25 May), with a likely return to a slow solar wind regime by day three (26 May).

Geospace

Sommario delle 24 ore
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to CH HSS effects.
Previsione
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled, with a likely period of active conditions on day one (24 May) due to continuing CH HSS effects. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet, with a few periods of unsettled conditions, on day two (25 May) in response to waning CH HSS influences. Day three (26 May) is expected to be primarily quiet.
I dati attuali suggeriscono che al momento non è possibile vedere l'aurora alle medie latitudini

Ultime notizie

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Notizie sul meteo spaziale

Ultimo X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Ultimo M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Ultima tempesta geomagnetica:2018/05/06Kp6 (G2)
Numero di giorni senza macchie nel 2018:78
Attuali giornate senza macchie:2

Questo giorno nella storia*

Flares solari
12014M1.3
22000M1.3
32001M1.2
42000M1.1
52002M1.1
ApG
1200093G4
2200730G2
3199526G1
4200321
5201320G2
*dal 1994

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