Viewing archive of sabato, 20 ottobre 2012
Rapporto attività solare
Rapporto dell'attività geofisica solare 2012 Oct 20 2200 UTCPreparato dal NOAA © SWPC ed elaborato da SpaceWeatherLive.com
Relazione congiunta USAF/NOAA sull'attività solare e geofisica
Numero SDF 294 rilasciato alle 2200Z il 20 Oct 2012IA. Analisi delle regioni solari attive e delle attività dal 19-2100Z al 20-2100Z
Solar activity was high. An impulsive M9 flare
occurred at 20/1814Z from newly numbered Region 1598 (S15E82). This
region appeared to be responsible for several C-class flares as it
approached the visible disk and will continue to be the area of
interest for the next few days. An associated Type II radio sweep
was recorded with an estimated speed of 516 km/s. Region 1593
(N15E09) showed some shearing and spot loss over the past 24 hours,
while Region 1597 (S22W58) had some intermediate spot growth and
separation between leader and follower. The remaining regions
showed little to or no changes. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed for the past 24 hours.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (21-23 October) with a chance for isolated
M-class flares.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dal 19-2100Z al 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steadily decreased from
approximately 440 km/s to near 380 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field continued to show minor deflections of
+/- 2 nT while total fields hovered near 4 nT. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (21 October). An increase to quiet to
unsettled levels is expected for days 2 and 3 (22-23 October) due to
the effects of a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilità di evento 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protone | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Osservato 20 Oct 151 Previsto 21 Oct-23 Oct 150/150/145 Media di 90 giorni 20 Oct 120
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
Osservato Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/002 Stimato Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilità di Attività Geomagnetica dal 21 Oct al 23 Oct
| A. Medie Latitudini | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Attivo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempesta minore | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tempesta maggiore intensa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Alte Latitudini | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Attivo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempesta minore | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempesta maggiore intensa | 10% | 15% | 15% |
Ultime notizie
domenica, 31 maggio 2020 - 14:53 UTC
Have we passed solar minimum?
sabato, 30 maggio 2020 - 13:05 UTC
Yesterday's M-flare producing active region rotates into view
venerdì, 29 maggio 2020 - 12:01 UTC
First M-class solar flare of a Solar Cycle 25 region!
Ultimo messaggio dal forum
- New research suggests Solar Cycle 25 could be strongest in 50 years 36
- Current knowledge of Solar-Terrestrial Coupling 13
- How to Calculate Sunspots Beforehand? 1
- Something is very wrong with the auto-detection of Coronal Holes: Using old, old images? 4
- When did Solar Cycle 25 Start? 25
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