Guarda l'archivio di lunedì, 3 novembre 2003

Rapporto attività solare

Rapporto dell'attività geofisica solare 2003 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Preparato dal NOAA © SWPC ed elaborato da SpaceWeatherLive.com

Relazione congiunta USAF/NOAA sull'attività solare e geofisica

Numero SDF 307 rilasciato alle 2200Z il 03 Nov 2003

IA. Analisi delle regioni solari attive e delle attività dal 02-2100Z al 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels. Two X-class events made way for yet another day of impressive major flare activity. Region 488 (N08W82) produced an X3/2f flare at 03/0955Z and an X2/2b event at 03/0130Z. Both flares had associated Tenflares, Type II and IV radio sweeps, and CME's. The associated CME with the X3 event didn't appear to be Earth directed, though the X2 event may become slightly geoeffective. This Region has shown some decay over the period although it remains a very magnetically complex region with delta structures still evident throughout the spot cluster. Region 486 (S17W75) was limited in flare production today. The largest flare from this region was an M3/sf that occurred at 03/1532Z. This region continues to exhibit a very complex magnetic field and continues to depict a beta-gamma-delta magnetic class structure. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels through day one. Regions 486 and 488 are due to exit the disk beginning on day two which should significantly drop flare activity by day three of the period.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dal 02-2100Z al 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 02/1105Z has thus far had a maximum of 1570 pfu, which occurred at 03/0815Z and has recently been ranging between 400 and 800 pfu's at the time of this writing. The greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 02/1740Z, reached a maximum of 49 pfu at 02/1905Z, and ended at 03/1720Z. The polar cap absorption event remains in progress. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to severe storm levels through day one of the period. A full halo CME resulting from the X8/2b event from yesterday is expected to arrive early in the period on day one. Additional data from SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates that there was significant deceleration of the CME. Predominantly active conditions are expected on day two with isolated minor storm levels expected. Day three should see a return to unsettled to active levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should drop below alert levels by day two.
III. Probabilità di evento 04 Nov to 06 Nov
Classe M90%90%70%
Classe X75%75%50%
Protone99%75%50%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Osservato       03 Nov 167
  Previsto   04 Nov-06 Nov  145/130/120
  Media di 90 giorni        03 Nov 131
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
  Osservato Afr/Ap 02 Nov  011/018
  Stimato     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  012/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  080/090-025/035-015/020
VI. Probabilità di Attività Geomagnetica dal 04 Nov al 06 Nov
A. Medie Latitudini
Attivo25%40%30%
Tempesta minore40%35%15%
Tempesta maggiore intensa35%15%10%
B. Alte Latitudini
Attivo10%30%40%
Tempesta minore50%45%20%
Tempesta maggiore intensa40%20%15%

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