Guarda l'archivio di lunedì, 20 maggio 2002

Rapporto attività solare

Rapporto dell'attività geofisica solare 2002 May 20 2200 UTC
Preparato dal NOAA © SWPC ed elaborato da

Relazione congiunta USAF/NOAA sull'attività solare e geofisica

Numero SDF 140 rilasciato alle 2200Z il 20 May 2002

IA. Analisi delle regioni solari attive e delle attività dal 19-2100Z al 20-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9961 (S22E62) produced two M-class flares and one X-class flare during the past 24 hours. The X-flare was an X2/2n at 1527 UTC and was impulsive. Nonetheless this flare was associated with a narrow-width CME from the southeast limb. The first M-flare was an M4 at 1029 UTC and the second was an M5 at 1053 UTC. Both of these events were impulsive and were attributed to 9961 based on SOHO/EIT data. Region 9961 appears to be a compact, magnetically complex group which has at least a gamma classification, and possibly a magnetic delta. Region 9957 (N09E22) continues to be the largest group on the disk and has a delta configuration in a compact collection of spots. A partial halo CME was observed in C2 at 19/2026 UTC and was centered over the southwest limb. EIT images at the same time confirmed a front-side source from the southwest part of the disk.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate, but there is a chance for an additional major flare event from either of Region 9961 or 9957.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dal 19-2100Z al 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period from 1500-1800 UTC. An interval of enhanced solar wind flow passed the ACE solar wind spacecraft beginning at 0257 UTC and lasted about 10 hours. The Bz magnetic field component was mostly negative with typical values between -5 nT and -10 nT. The onset of the this flow at Earth caused a sudden impulse at 0342 UTC, which measured 22 nT on the Boulder magnetometer.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field should be mostly unsettled tomorrow and quiet to unsettled on the second day. Activity on the third day is expected increase slightly to unsettled with some isolated active periods due to possible effects from today's partial halo CME that began at 19/2026 UTC.
III. Probabilità di evento 21 May to 23 May
Classe M80%80%80%
Classe X20%20%20%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Osservato       20 May 171
  Previsto   21 May-23 May  170/170/165
  Media di 90 giorni        20 May 184
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
  Osservato Afr/Ap 19 May  008/018
  Stimato     Afr/Ap 20 May  010/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  008/010-005/008-012/015
VI. Probabilità di Attività Geomagnetica dal 21 May al 23 May
A. Medie Latitudini
Tempesta minore10%10%15%
Tempesta maggiore intensa05%05%10%
B. Alte Latitudini
Tempesta minore10%10%20%
Tempesta maggiore intensa05%05%15%

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