Bulletins prévisionnels de la Météo Spatiale

Publié: 2018 May 23 1230 UTC
Préparés par le Département américain du Commerce, la NOAA, le Centre de Prévision de la Météo spatiale et traités par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activité solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2710 (N17E46, Bxo/beta) has been stable since rotating onto the disk. A B8 flare was observed at 22/1459 UTC along with several other B-class flares were observed from an area of enhanced brightening beyond the E limb at about N13. This new region is expected to rotate onto the visible disk on or about 25 May. Region 2711 (N05W22, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period, but was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Prévisions
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class activity all three days (23-25 May). The chance for C-class activity is due to potential flare activity from an unnumbered region beyond the NE limb.

Particules énergétiques

Résumé des dernières 24 heures
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 954 pfu observed at 22/2025 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Prévisions
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels all three days (23-25 May) due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated with CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Vent Solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated a weak CIR in advance of the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS, was observed. Wind speeds indicated a slight uptick to about 325 km/s through about 22/1630 UTC and further increased to near 490 km/s through periods end. Total field ranged between 4 to 12 nT while Bz varied between +/-9 nT. The phi angle was predominantly positive during this period.
Prévisions
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (23 May) as a positive polarity extension off the northern crown CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Based on STEREO-A PLASTIC data, wind speeds are anticipated to increase to near 500 km/s through day two (24 May). By day three (25 May), wind parameters are expected to slowly weaken as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.

Géospatial

Résumé des dernières 24 heures
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettledlevels.
Prévisions
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active intervals, on days one and two (23-24 May) under positive polarity CH HSS influence. By day three (25 May), geomagnetic conditions are expected to taper off to predominately quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions early.
Les données disponibles indiquent qu'il n'est actuellement pas possible de voir une aurore sur les latitudes moyennes.

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La Météo Spatiale en faits

Dernière classe X:10/09/2017X8.2
Dernière classe M:20/10/2017M1.0
Dernier orage géomagnétique:06/05/2018Kp6 (G2)
Nombre de jours sans taches solaires en 2018:78
Dernier jour sans taches solaires:20/05/2018

A ce jour dans l'histoire*

Éruptions solaires
12000C9.5
22000C5.6
32000C5.4
42000C4.3
52013C3.9
ApG
1200278G4
2200734G1
3200029G3
4199520G2
5201417G1
*depuis 1994

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