Bulletins prévisionnels de la Météo Spatiale

Publié: 2018 Oct 18 0030 UTC
Préparés par le Département américain du Commerce, la NOAA, le Centre de Prévision de la Météo spatiale et traités par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activité solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures
Solar activity was very low. Region 2725 (S11E05, Axx/alpha) retained its recently reemerged solo spot but was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Prévisions
Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (18-20 Oct).

Particules énergétiques

Résumé des dernières 24 heures
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 1,463 pfu at 17/2020 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
Prévisions
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on day one (18 Oct) due to influences associated with the formerly geoeffective negative polarity CH HSS. The arrival of a CIR is expected to decrease flux to normal and moderate levels on day two (19 Oct). Day three (20 Oct) is anticipated to see an increase to moderate and high levels due to effects associated with another CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Vent Solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return towards a slow solar wind regime. Solar wind speed decreased from around 475 km/s to near 400 km/s by the periods end. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 3 to 5 nT and the Bz component underwent weak deviations. The phi angle was mainly negative, but had some shifts between negative and positive sectors.
Prévisions
A mild disturbance in the solar wind is anticipated later on day one (18 Oct) due to effects associated with an SSBC and approaching CIR. Day two (19 Oct) is expected to experience an enhanced and more disturbed IMF due to CIR effects, followed by increasing solar wind speed as Earth connects with the south flank of an extension of the positive polarity, north polar CH HSS. Day three (20 Oct) is expected to see a decrease in the enhanced IMF and lowering solar wind speed.

Géospatial

Résumé des dernières 24 heures
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Prévisions
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet most of day one (18 Oct) with some unsettled reactions later in the day due to SSBC and approaching CIR influences. Day two (19 Oct) is expected to experience reactions of unsettled to active, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely due to CIR arrival and Earth connection with the south flank of the positive polarity CH HSS. Day three (20 Oct) is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for active conditions, as CH HSS influences continue, but weaken.
Les données disponibles indiquent qu'il n'est actuellement pas possible de voir une aurore sur les latitudes moyennes.

Dernières nouvelles

Aidez SpaceWeatherLive.com !

Vous êtes de plus en plus nombreux à consulter SpaceWeatherLive pour suivre l'activité solaire ou aurorale, et avec le traffic les coûts du serveur augmentent. Si vous appréciez SpaceWeatherLive, soutenez notre projet en faisant un don afin que nous puissions continuer à vous informer !

100%

Dernières alertes

Recevez des alertes instantanées!

La Météo Spatiale en faits

Dernière classe X:10/09/2017X8.2
Dernière classe M:20/10/2017M1.0
Dernier orage géomagnétique:13/10/2018Kp5 (G1)
Nombre de jours sans taches solaires en 2018:165
Dernier jour sans taches solaires:16/10/2018

A ce jour dans l'histoire*

Éruptions solaires
11998M2.4
22014M1.6
32001C8.5
42013C8.4
52014C6.7
ApG
1199532G3
2199627G1
3200325G1
4201519G1
5201415
*depuis 1994

Les réseaux sociaux