Affichage des archives de lundi, 26 novembre 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Nov 26 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 331 publié à 2200Z le 26 Nov 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/1526Z from Region 1620 (S13W28). The region grew significantly
overnight and is now considered an Esi-type region with a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 1618 (N08W69) continued to decay,
however, it maintained a weak delta in its trailing spot. There are
currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. A filament eruption
was observed south of Region 1620 in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at
26/0343Z. A model run is in progress to determine geoeffectiveness.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. A
shock passage was observed at 26/0437Z indicating the possible early
arrival of the 23 November CME followed by an 8 nT Sudden Impulse (SI)
observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 26/0514Z. Solar wind speed, as
measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 558 km/s at
26/0709Z. Total IMF reached 12.8 nT at 26/0749Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7.8 nT at 26/0729Z although it has remained
positive since about 26/1000Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active
periods on day one (27 Nov) as CME effects begin to wane. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 27 Nov au 29 Nov
| Classe M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 26 Nov 122 Prévisionnel 27 Nov-29 Nov 120/120/115 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 26 Nov 123
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 25 Nov 004/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 26 Nov 005/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 011/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 27 Nov au 29 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 35% | 15% | 05% |
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