Affichage des archives de samedi, 20 octobre 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Oct 20 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 294 publié à 2200Z le 20 Oct 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z Solar activity was high. An impulsive M9 flare
occurred at 20/1814Z from newly numbered Region 1598 (S15E82). This
region appeared to be responsible for several C-class flares as it
approached the visible disk and will continue to be the area of
interest for the next few days. An associated Type II radio sweep
was recorded with an estimated speed of 516 km/s. Region 1593
(N15E09) showed some shearing and spot loss over the past 24 hours,
while Region 1597 (S22W58) had some intermediate spot growth and
separation between leader and follower. The remaining regions
showed little to or no changes. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed for the past 24 hours.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (21-23 October) with a chance for isolated
M-class flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steadily decreased from
approximately 440 km/s to near 380 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field continued to show minor deflections of
+/- 2 nT while total fields hovered near 4 nT. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (21 October). An increase to quiet to
unsettled levels is expected for days 2 and 3 (22-23 October) due to
the effects of a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 Oct au 23 Oct
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 20 Oct 151 Prévisionnel 21 Oct-23 Oct 150/150/145 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 20 Oct 120
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/002 Estimé Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/004 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 Oct au 23 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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