Affichage des archives de samedi, 29 septembre 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Sep 29 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 273 publié à 2200Z le 29 Sep 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Numerous weak
C-class events were observed during the past 24 hours, mostly from
Regions 1575 (N07W73) and 1577 (N09W54). New Region 1583 (N13W75)
emerged on the disk as a simple bipolar group. No significant
changes were observed from the remainder of the disk and limb. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days
of the forecast period (30 September - 02 October).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite
measurements indicated a steady decline in wind speed from about 325
km/s to near 275 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 3 nT. At about
29/0100Z, a solar sector boundary crossing from a negative (toward)
to a positive (away) orientation was observed.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels through about midday on
day one (30 September). By late on day one, active levels with a
chance for minor to major storm periods are expected due to the
arrival of the Earth-directed CME observed early on 28 September.
On day two (01 October), continued minor to major storm conditions
are expected early in the day, decreasing to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods as
effects from the CME wane. Predominately quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day three (02 October).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 30 Sep au 02 Oct
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 29 Sep 136 Prévisionnel 30 Sep-02 Oct 135/130/125 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 29 Sep 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/003 Estimé Afr/Ap 29 Sep 004/004 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 018/035-018/025-007/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 30 Sep au 02 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 30% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 60% | 70% | 20% |
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