Affichage des archives de vendredi, 28 septembre 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Sep 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 272 publié à 2200Z le 28 Sep 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1577 (N08W41)
produced a long duration C3/1f flare at 27/2357Z. The event began
with a filament eruption located northwest of and adjacent to the
region with a subsequent dual ribbon flare. Associated with this
event was an Earth-directed, asymmetric, full-halo CME first visible
in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery at 28/0018Z and 28/0030Z,
respectively. The plane-of-sky speed through both fields averaged
1034 km/s with a computed radial velocity of 872 km/s. Little
change was observed for the remainder of the disk and limb. No
other Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days
of the forecast period (29 - 30 September and 01 October).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite
measurements indicated a steady decline in wind velocity from about
400 km/s to near 325 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded
threshold at 28/0300Z, reached a maximum of 28 pfu at 28/0445Z and
decayed below threshold at 28/1040Z. At the time of this report,
flux levels were still elevated at about 5 pfu. This event was
believed to be associated with the C3/1f flare observed late on 27
September.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels on day one (29
September) and through midday on day two (30 September). By late
on day two, active levels with a chance for minor to major storm
periods are expected due to the arrival of the Earth-directed CME
observed early on 28 September. On day three (01 October),
continued minor to major storm conditions are expected early in the
day, decreasing to mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods as effects from the CME wane.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 Sep au 01 Oct
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 Sep 138 Prévisionnel 29 Sep-01 Oct 135/135/130 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 Sep 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 Sep 003/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/003 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 004/005-018/035-018/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 Sep au 01 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 05% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 50% | 65% |
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