Affichage des archives de vendredi, 27 juillet 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Jul 27 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 209 publié à 2200Z le 27 Jul 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Sympathetic activity
between Regions 1530 (S19E28) and 1532 (S20E53) produced a M2/1f
x-ray event at 1726Z on 27 July. The event was accompanied by a
Tenflare (340 sfu), type II and IV radio sweeps. The type II was
reported with an estimated speed of 2099 km/s, however a radial
speed estimate of the CME obtained from STEREO B coronagraph was
measured near 500 km/s. Initial analysis suggests that the transient
will not likely have a geoeffective trajectory. New Region 1533
(S28E18) developed today and was numbered. There were some
preliminary observations indicating a new region (not yet numbered)
rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere, behind Region
1532.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next 3 days (28-30 July).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on day 1 (28 July) as the onset of
coronal hole (CH) high speed stream effects are forecasted. The
field should remain mostly unsettled on day 2 (29 July) with
possible nighttime active levels from substorms. Conditions should
recover from unsettled to active levels to mostly quiet on day 3 (30
July) as CH effects wane.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 28 Jul au 30 Jul
| Classe M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 27 Jul 123 Prévisionnel 28 Jul-30 Jul 125/130/135 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 27 Jul 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 26 Jul 003/003 Estimé Afr/Ap 27 Jul 004/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 008/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 28 Jul au 30 Jul
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 45% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 65% | 30% |
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