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Rapport d'activité solaire

Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 198 publié à 2200Z le 16 Jul 2012

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1520 (S16W58) produced todays largest event, a C7/Sf with maximum at 16/2003Z. Additional low level C-class events were observed during the period with regions 1520, 1519 (S17W81), 1521 (S22W71), and 1522 (N11W76) all contributing. All of the spotted regions on the disk were generally unchanged or slowly declining. There were some preliminary observations indicating a new region (yet to be numbered) rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the past 24 hours. (NOTE: todays F10.7 flux is based on the morning 1800Z reading because the 2000Z observation was flare enhanced).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low, but with a continued chance for an isolated M-class event. Region 1520 is the most likely source. A decline in activity and background levels is expected on the third day as Regions 1519, 1520, and 1521 cross west limb.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels (estimated Kp between 3 and 6). The period began with a continuation of storm level activity in response to the 12 July CME. Activity gradually subsided with mostly active conditions (estimated Kp of 4) from 0600-1500Z and unsettled levels for the remainder of the period. There were some lingering major storm intervals at high latitudes in the 0600-1800Z timeframe. Solar wind observations from ACE showed a continuation of the CME passage: initial values of the Z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field were around -15 nT and slowly weakened through the day, finally turning northwards at 1424Z. A second, much weaker phase of southward Bz began at 1755Z with maximum value around -4.5 nT. Solar wind velocity declined also, with initial values around 510 km/s and end-of-day values around 440 km/s.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods during the next 24 hours (17 July). In addition, there is a chance for isolated minor to major storm periods at high latitudes during the earlier part of 17 July. Solar wind driving of the magnetosphere is expected to continue to decrease in intensity throughout the day and predominantly quiet levels are expected for the second and third days (18-19 July).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Jul au 19 Jul
Classe M40%40%30%
Classe X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       16 Jul 138
  Prévisionnel   17 Jul-19 Jul  135/120/105
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        16 Jul 129
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 15 Jul  039/086
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  021/032
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  007/012-006/005-007/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Jul au 19 Jul
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif10%05%05%
Tempête mineure01%01%01%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%01%01%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif15%15%15%
Tempête mineure20%10%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère10%05%05%

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