Affichage des archives de samedi, 7 juillet 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Jul 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 189 publié à 2200Z le 07 Jul 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W63) produced
an X1 at 06/2308Z along with several M-class flares. An associated
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 06/2324Z, along with a 520
sfu Tenflare, Type II (est. speed 1771 km/s) and Type IV radio
sweeps. The bulk of the material appears to be directed southwest
and is not expected to cause significant activity. New Region 1520
(S15E54) was numbered today and produced an M1 event at 07/0828Z.
The region is considered an Fhc-type group with a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class activity for the next three days
(08-10 July).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
with an isolated minor storm period from 06/2100-2400Z due to an
extended period of southward Bz. A greater than 10 MeV Proton event
associated with yesterdays X-class event began at 07/0400Z and
peaked at 25 pfu at 07/0745Z. The event was still in progress at the
time of this report.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day one (08 July) due to
effects from the 04 July CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
on day two (09 July) as effects subside. Quiet to unsettled
conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on
day three (10 July) due to possible weak effects from the CME
associated with yesterdays X-class event.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 Jul au 10 Jul
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 Jul 158 Prévisionnel 08 Jul-10 Jul 160/155/145 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 Jul 123
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 06 Jul 014/017 Estimé Afr/Ap 07 Jul 009/013 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 017/025-012/012-013/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 Jul au 10 Jul
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 55% | 25% | 25% |
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