Affichage des archives de mercredi, 6 juin 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Jun 06 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 158 publié à 2200Z le 06 Jun 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1494 (S18W06)
produced an M2/1b at 06/2006Z associated with Type II (est. speed
1148 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. An associated CME was first
visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 06/2036Z. Further analysis will
be conducted as more images become available to determine
geoeffectiveness. A filament eruption was observed in SDO AIA 193
imagery around 05/1945Z near N12W10. The CME was first visible in
STEREO COR 2 imagery at 05/2039Z. The majority of the ejecta appears
to be north of the ecliptic plane, however, there is a weak
Earth-directed component. A model run is in progress to determine
geoeffectiveness. The Penticton 10 cm Flux value was estimated due
to flare enhancement.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (07-09 June).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active for the past 24
hours due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on day one
(07 June) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (08-09 June)
as effects from the CH HSS begin to subside.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 07 Jun au 09 Jun
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 06 Jun 140 Prévisionnel 07 Jun-09 Jun 140/140/140 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 06 Jun 117
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 05 Jun 015/021 Estimé Afr/Ap 06 Jun 013/016 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 011/015-007/012-006/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 07 Jun au 09 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 40% | 30% | 15% |
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