Affichage des archives de mercredi, 23 mai 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 May 23 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 144 publié à 2200Z le 23 May 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1484 (N11W56) produced
a C1/Sf flare at 23/0027Z. Region 1484 decayed slightly in its
leader and intermediate spots. Slight growth was observed in Region
1483 (S24W79) as it approached the west limb. New Region 1489
(S30E40) was numbered today. The rest of the spotted regions showed
no significant changes. No earth directed CMEs were observed during
the reporting period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the
forecast period (24 - 26 May).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storming. Early on
23 May, solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft increased from
approximately 430 km/s to 630 km/s while the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) fluctuated between +/- 10 nT. The geomagnetic field
responded with active to minor storm periods between 23/0000 -
0900Z. By about 23/0600Z, total field strength decreased to
approximately 4 - 5 nT while the Bz component remained mostly
positive. Solar wind speed remained fairly steady around 580 km/s
to 600 km/s through the end of the reporting period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for further active
periods on day 1 (24 May). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on
day 2 (25 May). On day 3 (26 May), quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected with a chance for isolated active periods around
mid-day as a glancing blow from the 22 May CME is possible.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 May au 26 May
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 May 117 Prévisionnel 24 May-26 May 115/115/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 May 116
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 May 015/018 Estimé Afr/Ap 23 May 012/018 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 010/010-005/005-008/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 May au 26 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 05% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 01% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 10% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 05% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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