Affichage des archives de jeudi, 17 mai 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 May 17 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 138 publié à 2200Z le 17 May 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels due to an M5/1f flare
at 17/0147Z that occurred from Region 1476 (N12W89) as it was
approaching the west limb. Associated with the flare was Type II
(645 km/s) and IV radio sweeps as well as a partial halo CME with an
estimated plane-of-sky speed of approximately 1200 km/s. The
majority of the ejecta was directed off the west limb as seen in
SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery beginning at 17/0206Z, however a shock
enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field is expected from
the event. Further analysis is pending.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity
for all three days of the period (18 - 20 May).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An isolated
active period was observed during the 16/2100Z - 2400Z period due to
a prolonged southward period of the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field. A >10 MeV and >100 MeV proton event
at geosynchronous orbit was observed associated with the M5 flare.
The >10 MeV event began at 17/0210Z, crossed the 100 pfu threshold
(S2) at 17/0245Z, reached a max of 255 pfu at 17/0430Z, and fell
below 100 pfu at 17/0945Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event
began at 17/0200Z and reached a max of 20.4 pfu. Both events were
still in progress at the time of this report.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet during the first half of day 1 (18 May).
Around mid to late on day 1, a shock arrival is expected from the
partial halo CME associated with the 17 May M5 flare. Active to
minor storm conditions are expected. Early on day 2 (19 May),
unsettled to active conditions are expected, returning to quiet to
unsettled levels by the end of the day. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day 3 (20 May).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 May au 20 May
| Classe M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 70% | 20% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 17 May 136 Prévisionnel 18 May-20 May 135/135/135 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 17 May 115
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 16 May 008/009 Estimé Afr/Ap 17 May 006/006 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 011/015-010/008-007/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 May au 20 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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