Affichage des archives de samedi, 28 avril 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Apr 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 119 publié à 2200Z le 28 Apr 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels due to single,
low-level C-class events from Regions 1461 (N10W89), 1466 (N12W51),
1467 (N12E18), 1469 (S19E14) and new Region 1470 (S17E61). New
Region 1471 (S23E70) was also numbered during the period. A 16
degree filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery at
28/1045Z. During the period of the eruption, the SE to NW oriented
filament was centered near S32W33. LASCO/C2 imagery observed an
associated slow-moving, non-Earth directed CME lifting off the SW
limb at 28/1224Z.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(29 April - 01 May).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated high latitude active period between 28/0900 - 1200Z.
Through the period, ACE solar wind velocities steadily decreased
from about 490 km/s to near 420km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was variable between +/-4 nT. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for days one and two
(29 - 30 April). By day three (01 May), quiet to unsettled levels,
with isolated active periods, are expected as a coronal hole high
speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 Apr au 01 May
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 Apr 121 Prévisionnel 29 Apr-01 May 125/120/120 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 Apr 112
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 Apr 007/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 Apr 005/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 Apr au 01 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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