Affichage des archives de mardi, 24 avril 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Apr 24 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 115 publié à 2200Z le 24 Apr 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours with multiple C-class x-ray events. A C3 flare was observed at
24/0745Z off the east limb from new Region 1467 (N14E72). Associated
with this event, were both a type II radio sweep (estimated shock
velocity of 1029 km/s) and a non-Earth directed CME. Two other new
regions were numbered today, Region 1468 (N09E12) which rapidly
emerged on the disk and Region 1469 (S21E68), which rotated onto the
disk. The remaining active regions were stable and quiet today,
except for Region 1465 (S19W12). Region 1465 showed a consolidation
of both leader and follower spot groups into one cluster and is now
classified as a beta-gamma-delta.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (25 - 27 April).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours due to continued CME effects and the arrival of a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Early in the period,
measurements from the ACE spacecraft showed extensive southward
(negative) periods of the Bz component of the IMF. Even though solar
wind speeds remained well below nominal levels, these periods drove
the majority of the geomagnetic activity. Around 24/0200Z, CH HSS
characteristics were observed by the ACE spacecraft with solar wind
density dropping off as the solar wind speed increased. At the time
of this report, solar wind speeds had increased from around 350 km/s
to around 630 km/s.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 April) as
the effects of a CH HSS continue. An increase to active with a
chance for isolated minor storm periods is expected on day two (26
April) as the CME from 23 April is expected to become geoeffective.
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (27 April) as
effects of the CME wane.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 25 Apr au 27 Apr
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 24 Apr 134 Prévisionnel 25 Apr-27 Apr 130/130/125 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 24 Apr 112
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 23 Apr 021/030 Estimé Afr/Ap 24 Apr 021/031 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 012/018-017/022-011/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 25 Apr au 27 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 50% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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