Affichage des archives de lundi, 12 mars 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Mar 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 072 publié à 2200Z le 12 Mar 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1430 (N22W67) produced
a C2 flare at 12/0155Z. Previously active Region 1429 (N18W50) is
now an Ekc type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels. A slight chance for an isolated
X-class flare remains possible from Region 1429.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels with
isolated periods of severe storm levels at high latitudes. The ACE
spacecraft observed a sudden storm commencement at 12/0843Z with
wind speeds escalating from 445 to 560 km/s. Total field strength
reached a peak of 28nT and Bz dropped as low as -21nT. A sudden
impulse was observed at 12/0921Z (96nT, as measured by the Boulder
magnetometer). Solar wind speeds reached up to 775 km/s during the
event. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit
remains near 10 pfu as of forecast issue. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (13 March)
due to CME effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on
day two (14 March) as CME effects subside. Day three (15 March) the
geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet levels.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 Mar au 15 Mar
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 60% | 40% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 Mar 115 Prévisionnel 13 Mar-15 Mar 115/115/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 Mar 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 11 Mar 010/009 Estimé Afr/Ap 12 Mar 021/030 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 035/065-015/025-005/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 Mar au 15 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 15% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 65% | 40% | 05% |
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