Affichage des archives de vendredi, 17 février 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Feb 17 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 048 publié à 2200Z le 17 Feb 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1418
(S23W55) redeveloped spots as a B-type group. The remaining regions
were quiet and stable. Two filament eruptions were observed during
the period. The first eruption was a 9 degree long filament
centered near N26E41 that lifted off at about 17/0130Z. The second
eruption was a 16 degree long filament centered near S33W17 that
lifted off at about 17/0553Z. LASCO C2 imagery observed a very
faint, slow-moving CME off the SSE limb first visible about
17/0745Z. This CME does not appear to have an Earth-directed
component.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (18 -
20 February).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind velocities
decreased during the period from about 350 km/s to near 300 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through most of day one (18
February). By late on day one and through day two (19 February),
field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels,
with isolated active periods, due to recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream effects. A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected by day three (20 February).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 Feb au 20 Feb
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 17 Feb 104 Prévisionnel 18 Feb-20 Feb 105/100/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 17 Feb 132
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/003 Estimé Afr/Ap 17 Feb 002/002 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 007/008-008/008-004/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 Feb au 20 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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