Affichage des archives de mardi, 8 novembre 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Nov 08 2355 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 312 publié à 2200Z le 08 Nov 2011 * * * * * * * * * * Corrected Copy * * * * * * * * * *IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N19W08) produced a
few low-level C-class events during the period. The region continued
to exhibit slow decay, both in area and spot count, as well as
magnetic complexity losing its Delta configuration. The other large
region on the disk, Region 1338 (S14W25) also is in slow decay, both
in area and magnetic complexity, and is now classified as a Beta
group. New region 1344 (S22W07) emerged on the disk early in the
period as a simple uni-polar spot group. Early in the period, a
filament eruption along a 25 degree channel was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery beginning at about 07/2232Z. LASCO C2 imagery first observed
a CME lifting off the NW limb at 07/2348Z.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (09 - 11 November) with a slight chance
for high activity (M5 or greater) from Region 1339. There is also a
slight chance for a proton flare from this region during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude minor storm periods. Solar wind speeds generally were
below 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuated between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day one and two of the period
(09 - 10 November). By day three (11 November), the field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated high
latitude active periods, as glancing blow effects from the 07
November CME are felt.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 09 Nov au 11 Nov
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 08 Nov 181 Prévisionnel 09 Nov-11 Nov 180/180/175 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 08 Nov 130
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 07 Nov 004/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 08 Nov 006/006 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 09 Nov au 11 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 05% | 05% | 13% |
| Tempête mineure | 02% | 02% | 03% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 16% |
| Tempête mineure | 13% | 13% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 08% | 08% | 14% |
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