Affichage des archives de mercredi, 16 février 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Feb 16 2205 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 047 publié à 2200Z le 16 Feb 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate with occasional
M-class and frequent C-class events throughout the period. Region
1158 (S21W39) has produced two M-class flares; the largest an M1/1F
at 16/1425Z with associated Type II radio sweep and a 330 sfu
Tenflare. Growth in Region 1158 leveled off at 620 millionths but
maintained its E-type configuration and beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification. Region 1161 (N13E25) produced an M1 x-ray event at
16/0139Z. LASCO imagery indicated an associated CME at 16/0248Z.
Region 1161 has shown continual growth. The group currently has an
area of 330 millionths and developed a beta-gamma magnetic
classification.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for an isolated major flare for the next
three days (17-19 February). Region 1158 is expected to produce more
M-class flares and still has the potential for producing an M5 or
greater x-ray event. There is a chance for isolated M-class activity
from Region 1161.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind velocities
throughout the period gradually decreased to around 400km/s.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An
increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor
storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18
February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected
arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on
15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active
as the disturbance subsides.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Feb au 19 Feb
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 Feb 114 Prévisionnel 17 Feb-19 Feb 105/105/100 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 Feb 085
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/005 Estimé Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 018/018-025/025-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Feb au 19 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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