Affichage des archives de vendredi, 4 juin 2010
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2010 Jun 04 2201 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 155 publié à 2200Z le 04 Jun 2010IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1076 (S19W49) has decayed in white light areal
coverage but remains a beta magnetic classification. No flares were
observed. However, a full-halo CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery
at 04/1202Z. The CME appears to be a backsided event and is not
expected to become geoeffective.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the next
three days (05-07 June).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with an
isolated minor storm period from 0000Z-0300Z for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft indicate the continuation of
a high speed solar wind stream with wind speeds around 550 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels with a chance for an isolated
active period for the first day (05 June) due to persistence and the
forecasted arrival of the CME observed on 31 May. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on the second day (06 June). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for active periods
on the third day (07 June) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream
moving into geoeffective position.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 Jun au 07 Jun
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 Jun 072 Prévisionnel 05 Jun-07 Jun 072/072/072 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 Jun 077
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 03 Jun 013/013 Estimé Afr/Ap 04 Jun 012/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 010/010-005/005-008/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 Jun au 07 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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