Affichage des archives de mardi, 6 avril 2010
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2010 Apr 06 2201 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 096 publié à 2200Z le 06 Apr 2010IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays flare activity
consisted of a single B1 X-ray event at 0402Z from Region 1060
(N26E32). In addition a small, possibly earthward directed CME was
observed in the Stereo coronagraph images and was associated with
disk activity in the SOHO EIT images beginning at about 0113Z, just
north of Region 1061 (N14W24). Region 1061 appears to be growing
slowly.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, but there is a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region
1061.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for most of
the day, with the exception of an interval of minor to major storm
levels between 0000-0600Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE
spacecraft showed a slow trend of increasingly negative Bz
consistent with continued influence of yesterdays CME-driven
activity. Peak negative Bz values reached -8 nT at about 1250Z.
Solar wind velocity gradually decreased during the past 24 hours and
was about 550 km/s at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active for the first day (07 April) due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole. Activity levels are expected to
be unsettled to active on the second day (08 April) due to
persistence as well as possible effects from todays CME.
Predominantly quiet levels are expected on the third day (09 April).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 07 Apr au 09 Apr
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 06 Apr 078 Prévisionnel 07 Apr-09 Apr 082/085/085 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 06 Apr 083
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 05 Apr 028/049 Estimé Afr/Ap 06 Apr 025/030 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 015/020-012/015-005/007
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 07 Apr au 09 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 20% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 25% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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