Affichage des archives de dimanche, 4 avril 2010
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2010 Apr 04 2201 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 094 publié à 2200Z le 04 Apr 2010IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. New Region 1060 (N24E58) was assigned
today and appears to be a small bipolar region.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class event during
the next three days (05-07 April).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. However, there
was an isolated active period at mid-latitudes from 0600-0900Z which
was accompanied by storm level activity at some high latitude
stations. Solar wind speed observed by the ACE spacecraft were
elevated throughout the day, typically between 460-540 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet with a chance for unsettled periods for the
first day (05 April) and partway through the second day (06 April).
An increase to mostly unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods is expected sometime late on the second day or early on the
third day (07 April) in response to a favorably positioned coronal
hole. Yesterdays halo CME appears to be primarily directed south of
the ecliptic plane. However, it is possible that the flank of the
CME could contribute to somewhat elevated activity on the third day.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 Apr au 07 Apr
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 Apr 079 Prévisionnel 05 Apr-07 Apr 080/080/085 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 Apr 083
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 03 Apr 005/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 04 Apr 010/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 005/007-007/010-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 Apr au 07 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 05% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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