Affichage des archives de vendredi, 27 avril 2007
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2007 Apr 27 2203 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 117 publié à 2200Z le 27 Apr 2007IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 953 (S10E49) produced several B-class events during the past
24 hours. As the region has rotated more fully into view, it now
appears that the group consists mostly of a large penumbral area
which contains opposite magnetic polarities, making the group a
beta-delta magnetic classification.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (28-30 April), with a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 953.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours.
An initially quiet to unsettled field became unsettled to active
with the onset of a high speed solar wind stream around 1500Z. Solar
wind velocity increased to about 600 km/s and the interplanetary
magnetic field showed fluctuations from about -9 nT to +7 nT.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with a chance for isolated minor storm
periods for the next 24 hours (28 April) as the high speed stream is
expected to continue. Unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods is expected for the second day (29 April) and conditions
should decline to mostly unsettled by the third day (30 April).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 28 Apr au 30 Apr
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 27 Apr 083 Prévisionnel 28 Apr-30 Apr 085/085/085 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 27 Apr 074
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 26 Apr 004/006 Estimé Afr/Ap 27 Apr 008/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 020/030-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 28 Apr au 30 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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