Affichage des archives de samedi, 16 décembre 2006
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2006 Dec 16 2234 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 350 publié à 2200Z le 16 Dec 2006IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z Solar activity declined to very low levels today.
Region 930 (S06W72) remains a magnetically complex region. Some
decay was noted in the penumbra of the delta structure in the
southern portion of the large asymmetrical sunspot. Several minor
B-class flares were observed during the period from Region 930. No
new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 930 remains capable of producing an
isolated X-class flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
conditions were due to the lingering effects of the transient
resulting from the X3 flare that occurred on 13 December. A shock
passage was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 16/1722Z
which was followed by a Sudden Impulse at the Boulder magnetometer
at 16/1756Z (13 nT). This latest disturbance is associated with the
X1 flare that occurred on 14 December. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from active to major storm levels with isolated
severe storm conditions possible on 17 December due to the effects
of today's transient passage. A return to quiet to unsettled levels
are expected on 18 and 19 December.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Dec au 19 Dec
| Classe M | 60% | 25% | 10% |
| Classe X | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 Dec 082 Prévisionnel 17 Dec-19 Dec 080/075/075 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 Dec 081
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 Dec 048/104 Estimé Afr/Ap 16 Dec 010/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 030/040-008/010-004/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Dec au 19 Dec
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 35% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 35% | 05% | 01% |
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